Costco Stock Price Forecast: Here's What a $10,000 Investment Today Could Be Worth by September 2027

Over the past 12 months, Costco Wholesale's (NASDAQ: COST) stock price has underperformed the S&P 500. While Costco shares are down 6.2% as of this writing, the S&P 500 has climbed 16.4%. Also, Costco is trading well below its 52-week high of approximately $1,096.

That said, based on analysts' forecasts over the next 12 months, the Costco stock price could look very different by September 2027.

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Investing $10,000 in Costco

For what a $10,000 investment in Costco could turn into, we'll use the price as of this writing, $904.67. At that price, a $10,000 investment would yield slightly more than 11 shares through fractional investing.

To see how much that could be worth, we'll look at analyst price targets. Price targets aren't a guarantee of where a stock will trade, but they give investors a sense of where it could, helping them decide whether the risk is worth the potential reward. According to CNN, the median price target among the 41 analysts covering Costco Wholesale is $1,100 over the next 12 months, representing a potential gain of 21.5%. That gain would turn a $10,000 investment into $12,155.

For the full picture, the group's highest price target is $1,315, representing a potential gain of 45.3%. The lowest price target, $781, represents a potential loss of 13.6%.

The investment considerations

Costco stock has indeed traded down over the past 12 months while the S&P 500 has been up; this looks like a case where the stock got a bit ahead of itself.

Shareholders have high expectations, as its forward price-to-earnings ratio is 40.3, and markets appear cautious about companies like Walmart and Costco, fearing that any consumer distress signals are early warning signs of broader economic turmoil.

That said, as a long-term investment to hold for years or longer, Costco is one of my favorite opportunities. Its members are incredibly loyal, with the retailer boasting a 92.2% renewal rate in North America and 89.7% globally as of the third quarter of fiscal 2026. While it operates on a membership model, it's the type of membership customers aren't likely to cancel even during challenging times, since its warehouse is stocked with bulk deals on necessities. That helps make it a recession-resistant stock.

In addition to its loyal customer base, Costco treats its shareholders well with a quarterly dividend and a special dividend, usually paid out every few years. Its last special dividend, $15 per share, was paid in January 2024. Alongside stock price appreciation, that makes for a lot of total return potential packed into one stock. That's why, while the median price target of $1,100 over the next 12 months looks favorable, what's even more compelling is how Costco can reward long-term shareholders through its total return drivers.

Jack Delaney has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Costco Wholesale and Walmart. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.