The Week Ahead: September FOMC Rate Decision and Dot Plot Ahead, Trip.com and Lennar Earnings in Focus

TradingKey - During the week of September 14 to 18, the U.S. stock market will see the Fed's September FOMC meeting, as well as key U.S. economic data such as August retail sales, import and export price indices, industrial production, and capacity utilization. All dates and times listed in this article are Eastern Time.

Against the backdrop of elevated inflation pressures, the Fed's interest rate decision and latest economic projections will directly influence market expectations for the future rate path.

Meanwhile, Trip.com Group (TCOM) and Lennar (LEN) will also report earnings. The two companies' earnings reports will reflect global travel market conditions and U.S. new home demand, respectively.

Major Events Preview

September FOMC Meeting: Interest Rate Decision and Dot Plot in Focus

The Federal Reserve will hold its September FOMC meeting from Tuesday to Wednesday (September 15 to 16), releasing its monetary policy statement and the latest Summary of Economic Projections at 2:00 p.m. on September 16, followed by a press conference at 2:30 p.m.

This Summary of Economic Projections will cover economic growth, the unemployment rate, inflation, and the federal funds rate. The chart reflecting FOMC participants' assessments of appropriate interest rate levels is commonly known in the market as the "dot plot." Each dot represents an individual participant's judgment of the appropriate level of the federal funds rate at the end of the specified year, rather than a formal commitment by the FOMC to a future rate path.

If the dot plot shows that the median or overall distribution of future interest rates has shifted upward compared to the June projections, U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar Index could move higher, putting pressure on high-valuation tech stocks; conversely, if the median rate shifts downward, or if the policy statement and press conference deliver relatively dovish signals, market risk appetite may receive support.

U.S. August Retail Sales: Consumer Resilience Put to the Test

The U.S. will release August retail sales alongside import and export price indices at 8:30 a.m. on Wednesday (September 16), followed by July business inventories at 10:00 a.m.

Retail sales data reflect nominal sales by U.S. retail and food services firms, serving as an important indicator for tracking changes in goods consumption and certain services consumption.

If the data are significantly stronger than expected, it may indicate that consumer demand remains resilient, reinforcing market expectations that the Fed will maintain a tighter policy stance; if the data slow significantly, expectations for further rate hikes may cool, though investors' concerns over economic growth could also escalate.

Retail sales will be released five and a half hours prior to the Fed's monetary policy statement, and could therefore influence market expectations regarding this rate decision and the subsequent policy outlook.

Lennar Earnings: Housing Demand and Profit Margins in Focus

Lennar will report its third-quarter fiscal 2026 financial results after the market close on Wednesday (September 16), followed by an earnings conference call at 11:00 a.m. on Thursday (September 17).

The company previously forecasted third-quarter new orders of 21,000 to 22,000 homes, deliveries of 20,500 to 21,500 homes, an average selling price of $375,000 to $380,000, and a gross margin on home sales of approximately 16%.

Against the backdrop of elevated mortgage rates and strained housing affordability, investors should focus closely on Lennar's new orders, deliveries, average selling prices, sales incentives, and gross margins on home sales.

Management's updated guidance on orders, selling prices, sales incentives, and margins will also serve as a key reference for gauging demand in the U.S. new home market.

Core Schedule for the Week

Monday (September 14)

Key Events: Kestra Medical Technologies Earnings, Dave & Buster’s Earnings

The U.S. lacks heavy-hitting economic data that could move the market on Monday. As the Federal Reserve's September FOMC meeting convenes the following day, market focus turns to the interest rate decision and policy signals.

On the earnings front, wearable medical device company Kestra Medical Technologies (KMTS) will report its first-quarter fiscal 2027 financial results after the market close. Investors can focus on revenue growth in its wearable cardioverter defibrillator business, insurance coverage progress, and changes in operating expenses.

Dave & Buster’s (PLAY) will also report its second-quarter 2026 financial results after the market close. The market will focus on same-store sales, store foot traffic, profit margins, and management's outlook on U.S. discretionary consumer demand.

Tuesday (September 15)

Key Events: September FOMC Meeting, September Empire State Manufacturing Index, Trip.com Group Earnings

The Federal Reserve will begin its two-day September FOMC meeting. Recent inflation and employment data will serve as a key basis for officials discussing policy rates, while the market continues to assess the likelihood of the Fed hiking rates or holding them steady.

On the economic data front, the New York Fed will release the September Empire State Manufacturing Index at 8:30 a.m. This indicator mainly reflects manufacturing activity in New York State, allowing the market to observe changes in new orders, shipments, employment, and input costs.

On the earnings front, Trip.com Group will report its financial results for the second quarter and first half of 2026 ending June 30 after the market close. Investors can focus on the performance of business segments such as accommodation reservations, transportation ticketing, packaged tours, and corporate travel management.

Wednesday (September 16)

Key Events: September FOMC Rate Decision, August Retail Sales and Import/Export Price Indices, Lennar Earnings

On the economic data front, the U.S. will release August retail sales and import/export price indices at 8:30 a.m. Retail sales will serve as a key metric for observing U.S. consumer spending, while the import/export price indices reflect the impact of international commodity prices and exchange rate fluctuations on U.S. inflation.

The Federal Reserve will announce the FOMC interest rate decision and its latest Summary of Economic Projections at 2:00 p.m., followed by a press conference at 2:30 p.m. The policy rate, dot plot, and the Fed's updated projections for economic growth, unemployment, and inflation could jointly drive U.S. Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar, and U.S. stock market trends.

On the earnings front, Lennar will release its third-quarter fiscal 2026 financial results after the market close. Investors can focus on new orders, home deliveries, average selling prices, sales incentives, and home sales gross margins to assess shifts in U.S. new home demand and housing affordability pressures.

Thursday (September 17)

Key Events: August Housing Starts and Building Permits, September Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

The U.S. will release August housing starts, building permits, and the September Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index at 8:30 a.m.

Housing starts reflect actual groundbreakings on new residential projects, while building permits provide a forward-looking reference for future residential construction activity. Better-than-expected data could improve market outlooks on residential construction; if the data weakens significantly, it may signal that higher financing costs, affordability pressures, and developer caution continue to weigh on the housing market.

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index primarily reflects operating conditions for manufacturing firms in the Third Federal Reserve District, allowing the market to observe changes in new orders, shipments, employment, and price pressures.

Friday (September 18)

Key Events: August Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

The Federal Reserve will release August industrial production and capacity utilization data at 9:15 a.m. Covering manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities, these figures serve as key indicators for measuring U.S. industrial activity.

In addition, Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will deliver a speech on stress testing at 9:30 a.m. As the speech focuses on banking supervision, market attention will likely center on stress testing frameworks, capital requirements, and other regulatory policies, which could impact bank stocks.

Overall, key drivers for U.S. equities during the week of September 14–18 include the FOMC rate decision, the latest economic projections and dot plot, and economic data such as U.S. retail sales. Among them, the September FOMC meeting and August retail sales will be the primary macro highlights.