1 Popular Cryptocurrency to Buy Before It Surges by 920%, According to Cathie Wood's Ark Invest

A single Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) was trading for $59,100 at its recent low point on July 1, representing a 52% decline from last year's peak. It has since rallied to more than $78,000 as of Aug. 24, giving the investment community hope that a new bull cycle might be getting started.

Ark Investment Management, which was founded by seasoned technology investor Cathie Wood, is especially optimistic about Bitcoin's future. Ark believes the cryptocurrency can reach a market capitalization of $16 trillion by 2030, which would translate to a price of $797,000 per coin.

That implies a potential upside of 920% from the current level, so should investors buy Bitcoin right now?

Ark Investment Management's Cathie Wood speaking in an interview. Image source: Getty Images.

Six catalysts are underpinning Ark's forecast

Ark publishes a new version of its "Big Ideas" report every year, where the firm reveals opportunities it has identified across the technology industry. The 2026 report highlighted six catalysts that could drive Bitcoin's market cap to $16 trillion by 2030, but two of them account for the bulk of that forecast.

1. Institutional investment: Ark believes global fund managers will eventually park around 2.5% of their $200 trillion in managed assets in Bitcoin, adding $5 trillion to the cryptocurrency's market cap. Many fund managers take a diversified approach to investing, and Bitcoin is unlike any other asset they might already be holding.
2. Digital gold: Ark thinks Bitcoin could capture somewhere between 20% and 60% of gold's $32 trillion market cap as investors look for an alternative to the shiny yellow metal. This could add somewhere between $6.5 trillion and $19.4 trillion to Bitcoin's own valuation.

The other four catalysts will add a negligible amount to Bitcoin's market cap compared to the other two:

1. Emerging-market safe haven: Ark predicts a growing number of people in developing countries will buy Bitcoin to hedge against economic and political instability.
2. Nation-state treasury: Ark thinks many countries will follow the U.S.'s lead by establishing their own strategic Bitcoin reserves, holding them the same way they hold gold and other assets.
3. Corporate treasury: Some companies are holding Bitcoin to protect their balance sheet against economic uncertainty. Elon Musk's Space Exploration Technologies is currently one of them.
4. Bitcoin on-chain financial services: Ark predicts more consumers and businesses will process transactions using the Bitcoin network over time, bypassing traditional payment systems.

It's worth pointing out that Ark actually reduced the size of the emerging-market safe-haven opportunity by a whopping 80% between its 2025 and 2026 Big Ideas reports, because stablecoins and other alternatives are experiencing high adoption rates to the detriment of Bitcoin. Many top stablecoins are priced in U.S. dollars, and since they experience practically zero volatility, they are very attractive to people in developing countries where economic stability is prevalent.

Therefore, even as one of the world's most bullish firms, Ark acknowledges that Bitcoin isn't immune to disruption from newer innovations.

Take Ark's 2030 forecast with a grain of salt

The prospect of a 920% return in Bitcoin during the next four years sounds enticing, but investors might want to think twice before piling into the cryptocurrency, because it will have to overcome some tricky math to achieve a $16 trillion market cap.

For example, at that valuation, Bitcoin would be worth more than Nvidia, Apple, and Alphabet (the world's three largest companies) combined. Further, $16 trillion is more than half of the annual output of the entire U.S. economy, which was $30.8 trillion last year.

There is also a glaring problem with Ark's top catalyst. Although many investors treat Bitcoin like a digital version of gold, it isn't performing like one. Gold has rocketed higher by 72% since the start of 2025, as investors seek a safe asset to hedge against rising inflation, surging government debt, and global trade disruptions sparked by the Trump administration's broad tariffs.

Bitcoin, on the other hand, has declined by 18% during the same period. In the face of trouble, investors have clearly shunned the cryptocurrency in favor of actual gold.

Gold Price in US Dollars data by YCharts

If the digital gold catalyst doesn't pan out, Bitcoin will have to find trillions of dollars in value from other sources to meet Ark's 2030 target, and it appears none of the firm's other five catalysts will even come close to filling the gap.

As a result, the recent recovery in Bitcoin might continue, but I think the chances of it soaring to about $800,000 per coin by 2030 are slim.

Anthony Di Pizio has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Apple, Bitcoin, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.