Where Will Netflix Stock Be in 5 Years?

It's been a little over five months since the global movie and streaming giant Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) walked away from an $82.7 billion bid to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery's film and studio assets, paving the way for its rival Paramount Skydance to buy the entire company.

Since then, Netflix's stock has come under pressure as investors rethink the company's growth prospects as it shifts out of its previous rapid expansion phase toward a more mature business model. But what might the next five years have in store for Netflix and its shareholders?

Is buying growth better than slowing growth?

Netflix's stock price initially surged after management decided to cede the fight for Warner Bros. to Paramount Skydance. Investors had been worried about the financial risks Netflix would be taking on if it managed to seal the deal -- specifically, the prospect of taking on billions in additional debt to finance the buyout and the challenges of combining two large and complex businesses into a cohesive whole.

However, with the benefit of hindsight, it's easy to see why management thought the megamerger was a good idea before a competing bid from Paramount made the price too steep to justify: Netflix is running out of organic growth, and that has been causing its stock to rapidly lose its premium valuation.

The company's second-quarter earnings highlight this troubling trend.

Revenue rose by just 13% year over year to $12.6 billion, a deceleration from the top-line growth rate of 16% that Netflix enjoyed in the corresponding quarter of 2025. More importantly, engagement growth is also soft, with viewing hours up by just 2% in the first half of the year. This suggests most of Netflix's revenue growth is now coming from squeezing more money out of existing users instead of attracting and engaging new ones -- a symptom of the heavy competition in the streaming space.

Netflix is becoming a mature business

No company can expand at a breakneck pace forever. But the transition from being a growth business to a mature business doesn't necessarily have to be a train wreck, and Netflix has several key advantages that can help smooth the way. For starters, it enjoys immense size and brand recognition, which will help it generate substantial shareholder value, even as engagement growth begins to plateau.

Even small increases in pricing across over 325 million subscribers can translate to meaningful revenue and profit growth. And Netflix is still at the early stages of monetizing its most exciting strategy: advertising.

Image source: Getty Images.

Management expects to deliver $3 billion in total advertising revenue in 2026, which would be double the figure it reported last year. The fact that this business has been able to scale up so rapidly is evidence of the natural advantages provided by Netflix's scale. And this might only be the beginning: Analysts at the World Advertising Research Center project that Netflix's ad revenue will hit $8 billion by 2030 as it continues to improve its technology and expand its global advertiser base.

Investors also shouldn't overlook Netflix's international opportunities. While the company has already penetrated over half of American households, it has much more room to grow in regions like Asia, especially as it invests in localized, native language content. The company has already created over 200 originals in India, and its deep pockets and global experience will likely help it stand out from the local competition.

What will the next five years have in store?

Netflix is a mature company. And because it is already so large, even huge opportunities like digital advertising and international expansion will only contribute modest growth to its top line. That said, shares trade at a reasonable forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 23, which is just slightly higher than the S&P 500's average forward P/E of 21. And if shares continue to decline, Netflix could soon become an attractive value pick for long-term investors.

Will Ebiefung has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.