Forget Meme Coins: Here's Why I'm Investing in Prediction Market Contracts Instead
Key Points
Meme coins are down across the board, and crypto speculators have moved on to prediction markets.
On Robinhood, prediction markets are now generating more revenue than crypto trading.
While prediction markets offer the allure of tremendous upside, they are very likely to result in losses.
- 10 stocks we like better than Robinhood Markets ›
There's been little talk about meme coins in the first half of 2026, and for good reason. Across the board, meme coins have taken a beating as investors find other ways to speculate on crypto.
One place they're headed is online prediction markets, where it's surprisingly easy to make "yes/no" directional bets on popular cryptocurrencies. They offer one way to make money in a down market, and that's exactly why they have become so popular.
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Prediction markets are booming
Prediction markets are absolutely booming right now. Both Kalshi and Polymarket are seeing surging trading volumes on their platforms, and new participants such as Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ: HOOD) and Coinbase Global (NASDAQ: COIN) are also posting record revenue from prediction markets.
Image source: Getty Images.
For example, when Robinhood reported earnings for Q2 2026, it posted higher revenue from prediction market trading ($156 million) than from equity trading ($129 million) or crypto trading ($100 million).
Admittedly, not all of this revenue from prediction markets is crypto-related. The lion's share comes from sports- and politics-related prediction markets. This summer, the 2026 FIFA World Cup soccer tournament generated enormous interest from prediction market traders, and the upcoming U.S. midterm elections are likely to do the same.
Meme coin markets vs. prediction markets
To understand the allure of prediction markets, it's helpful to use a real-world example. The crypto I'm focused on is Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC), and the one Kalshi prediction market contract I'm focused on is the following: "How high will Bitcoin get in 2026?"
Currently, the "yes" contract for "Bitcoin Above $100,000" is selling for just $0.10. So, a simple $100 investment buys 1,000 contracts. If I'm right and Bitcoin surpasses the $100,000 price point this year, I'll get $1,000, for a net profit of $900. It doesn't matter how Bitcoin does it, and it doesn't matter if it takes Bitcoin until Dec. 31 to do it.
Now let's do the math. If I invest $100 in prediction markets, I can end up with $1,000. That's a stunning 10x return. By way of comparison, $100 in the crypto market currently buys you 0.0015 BTC. If Bitcoin makes it all the way to $100,000 this year, your $100 crypto investment will be worth approximately $150. That's a nice, tidy 50% return, but it's nowhere near the 10x return possible with prediction markets.
Risk-reward trade-off
Just remember: Risk and reward are opposite sides of the same coin. In other words, the higher the risk, the higher the reward. That $100 prediction market investment could easily be worth $0 at the end of the year.
After all, prediction markets are telling me that I only have a 10% chance of being right. So you definitely need to set a limit for how much you're willing to lose.
However, if I'm right, I'll have some extra spending cash for year-end holiday gifts. And that's why I'm ignoring meme coins right now. If I'm going to speculate wildly on crypto and risk losing everything, I at least want to place my faith in Bitcoin, and not in some animal-themed meme coin such as Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE).
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Dominic Basulto has positions in Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool recommends Coinbase Global. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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