SpaceX Just Guided for A $100B Run Rate by December and $1 Trillion of Revenue by 2030. Here's Why the Stock Is Getting Crushed Anyway

Space Exploration Technologies Corp (NASDAQ:SPCX) reported strong revenue growth in the second quarter of the year, and lofty forward guidance.

But the stock traded roughly 11.2% lower in pre-market hours, as of 8:05 a.m. ET, with investors worried about the company’s hefty spending plans.

Total revenue of over $7.8 billion grew nearly 92% year over year and roughly 66% from the first quarter. The company generated an operating loss of $143 million, a significant improvement from the prior quarter and year-over-year. Segment-adjusted EBITDA also nearly tripled from a year ago.

CEO Elon Musk, on a conference call, told Wall Street analysts that the company expects to reach a $100 billion annual revenue run rate by December of this year and $1 trillion of annual revenue by 2030, a year ahead of the company’s previous guidance.

In fact, Musk said there’s a “non-zero chance of that being in 2029.”

Even at SpaceX’s $1.77 trillion market cap, this guidance, if achievable, makes the stock look quite appealing. Here’s why it’s getting crushed anyway.

Image source: The White House.

Capex soars

During the quarter, capital expenditures soared to nearly $18.4 billion, up from roughly $10 billion and $2.8 billion in the previous quarter and second quarter of 2025, respectively.

SpaceX’s CFO Bret Johnsen also told analysts that they can expect capex to be at similar levels in the next two quarters.

Johnsen said that capex for artificial intelligence compute is seeing less than a one-year payback. SpaceX has already announced massive deals with Anthropic and Google on this front, generating over $2 billion per month in revenue.

So, if the company can continue to scale its data center compute business, it makes it easier to see how SpaceX will make these giant revenue leaps over the next several months and years.

Musk also reiterated that orbital data centers could be closer than people think. He said the Starmind AI satellites, which will be built with Nvidia’s Vera Rubin chips, are expected to begin launching next year.

This could greatly expand SpaceX’s compute capacity, which Musk already expects to be two gigawatts (GW) by the end of this year and closer to 10 GW by the end of 2027. The higher the company’s capacity, the faster it will grow revenue by renting it to companies running AI solutions and large language models.

While it all sounds great, there’s considerable dispute over how much orbital data centers will cost and the tech required to bring them online. Investors are also likely skeptical of Musk’s timeline.

As with other large AI stocks, investors are only assigning credit to companies with massive capex plans that provide tangible evidence that the returns will materialize in the financials.

A big tranche of insider shares can be sold

SpaceX shares have been volatile over the past few days. On the day of SpaceX’s earnings, the stock climbed roughly 10%.

It has now given back those gains, but this could be partly mechanical, too, because a large tranche of insider shares are now eligible for sale.

According to SpaceX’s registration statement, 20% of shares held by insiders, such as employees, and subject to the company’s lock-up provision, will be eligible for sale on the second full day of trading following SpaceX’s second-quarter earnings results.

That means these shares can be sold starting on Aug 6. That number would have been 30% if SpaceX stock had traded at least 30% above the company’s $135 per share listed initial public offering price. As of this writing, it’s still well below that level.

So this dynamics may also be pressuring shares, as the market prepares for more supply.

Ultimately, I think investors would be right to apply a healthy dose of skepticism to Musk’s guidance, especially with the spending coming in so heavy right now.

If it becomes clear that the company can meet its guidance or that its orbital data centers will become operational next year, the stock becomes a clearer buy.

Bram Berkowitz has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.