Millionaire Maker or Market Hype? The Honest Truth About NuScale Power.

NuScale Power (NYSE: SMR) has had its fair share of market hype.

As a nuclear company with a cutting-edge technolgy -- small modular reactors, or SMRs -- that could help meet the world's rapidly growing electricity demand, NuScale stock has been swept up in the same frenzy as other AI-driven energy plays.

Like other nuclear companies, however, the artificial intelligence narrative could push the stock only so far, which, for NuScale, was a market valuation of about $20 billion seen in mid-October 2025. The stock has, since then, plummeted over 75%, and it now carries a market cap of roughly $3.6 billion.

After such a steep sell-off, the likelihood of NuScale stock minting new millionaires has improved -- though, to be sure, the risks that could derail its business have not gone away.

The math behind NuScale becoming a millionaire-making stock

NuScale's market cap, again, sits at roughly $3.6 billion, with shares trading below $10. For a $10,000 investment to become a $1 million investment, the stock would have to rise about 100-fold, implying a market value of roughly $360 billion, assuming limited dilution. If we were to factor dilution in, the company would likely need to become even more valuable for shareholders to realize the same gain.

If you were to invest $50,000 in NuScale today, you would need the stock to grow 50-fold -- to a market cap of about $182 billion -- before you reached $1 million.

Image source: Getty Images.

Will NuScale's market cap realistically trade in the triple digits?

A market cap of about $100 billion for NuScale isn't impossible. But it would take decades, not years, and would require growth investors to stay invested through the ups and downs.

But let's be real: For NuScale to become this valuable, almost everything would have to go right, and then some.

Here's what a $100 billion-plus market cap might look like: Small modular reactors (SMRs) would need to become accepted worldwide. I'm talking hundreds of reactors across the globe, perhaps more, with NuScale's technology dominating competitors. Companies would choose NuScale because its reactors are safe, the projects associated with its name are finished on time, and the economics of its technology make sense.

That's the bull case, but here's the reality: NuScale barely has revenue. It doesn't have a binding commitment from a customer to deploy its technology. And its first major project in the U.S. collapsed in late 2023 after cost estimates got too high.

Even at a small scale, NuScale is affirming an old truth: Nuclear power is slow-moving and expensive. Until it proves otherwise, it's hard to imagine NuScale becoming a 100-bagger over your lifetime. Moderate growth is more likely from this nuclear energy stock than a millionaire-making returns.

Steven Porrello has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends NuScale Power. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.