SpaceX Stock Is Worth This Much, According to Dan Ives (Hint: Big Gains Ahead)

Wedbush research analyst Dan Ives recently initiated coverage on Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX), marking a notable moment for Elon Musk's newly public company. Following SpaceX's historic IPO, Ives published an upbeat assessment emphasizing the company's space industry heritage and its emerging role in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure.

Ives' analysis frames SpaceX as more than a rocket and satellite operator, highlighting its status as a vertically integrated technology business with recurring revenue streams and strategic depth that could deliver long-term gains.

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Why does Dan Ives like SpaceX stock?

Ives assigned SpaceX an outperform rating and a 12-month price target of $190. This implies roughly 18% upside from where it closed Monday's trading session. His optimism is supported by a sum-of-the-parts valuation model anchored to fiscal 2028 estimates, projecting an enterprise value near $2.5 trillion.

Central to the thesis is Starlink's potential to mature into a durable profit engine through steady subscription revenue. Interestingly, Ives is not the only analyst on Wall Street who sees game-changing potential from Starlink. Timothy Horan of Oppenheimer also cites Starlink's potential to disrupt the telecommunications industry as a major driver of SpaceX's future growth.

Additionally, Ives sees SpaceX accelerating its participation in hyperscaler AI build-outs. In essence, rather than viewing SpaceX solely through an aerospace lens, Ives emphasizes the company's access to expanding markets that create a diversified growth profile.

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How is SpaceX becoming an AI company?

Over the last month, SpaceX has moved aggressively to better showcase its ecosystem, blending its strengths in space exploration with its AI capabilities. The company inked agreements to lease some of its compute infrastructure capacity to Google Cloud, Anthropic, and Reflection AI. Taken together, these contracts will be worth up to $82 billion over the next few years. Under these arrangements, frontier AI developers gain instant access to high-performance Nvidia GPU clusters housed in SpaceX's data centers.

Additionally, SpaceX recently agreed to acquire Cursor for $60 billion in an all-stock transaction. Cursor is a coding business that is expected to bring new software capabilities to SpaceX's broader AI portfolio. These moves signal that SpaceX is deliberately aiming to monetize existing AI infrastructure and integrate new talent as the company moves beyond its legacy launch and connectivity businesses.

As Ives points out, these AI-focused deals and acquisitions are not simple side hustles for SpaceX. Rather, these moves have the potential to create measurable synergies that can accelerate progress in SpaceX's rocket launch and satellite businesses.

Advanced coding and development tools from Cursor could be used to streamline software for flight control systems, trajectory optimization, and real-time decision-making during launches. Moreover, the new compute partnerships generate consistent cash flow that will support continued investment in capital-intensive segments like reusable rocketry. On the satellite side, Starlink's constellations are positioned to gain from AI-driven network management and predictive analytics that enhance coverage and data throughput for customers.

These interconnections reinforce a virtuous cycle for SpaceX. AI-driven revenue funds space innovation, while space-derived capabilities across Starship and Starlink can help support ever-larger AI workloads. This deep integration lends support to Ives' bullish case by showing how new revenue opportunities and technological advantages directly bolster the company's established strengths.

Should you buy SpaceX stock right now?

Since SpaceX's IPO last month, the stock has displayed notable volatility. In reality, the company still has considerable ground to cover before it could conceivably demonstrate the ability to generate consistent profitability and operational scale across its portfolio. In my view, much of the momentum around SpaceX stock is amplified by the enduring influence of Elon Musk and high-visibility endorsements from influential pundits and analysts like Ives.

While SpaceX stock may be appealing to investors who find management's ambitions credible, simply investing in the company based on an analyst's initial report is not a strategy that's likely to produce multibagger gains anytime soon.

When weighing an investment in any company, a measured approach focused on the business's fundamental progress rather than endorsements or headlines is always the more prudent path. With this in mind, I think the better approach to SpaceX would be to assess its financial results over the next several quarters and listen to management's forecasts about where the company is headed throughout the AI infrastructure era. There will be many opportunities to invest in SpaceX stock at more reasonable valuations over the long run.

Adam Spatacco has positions in Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.