SpaceX Is Set to Join the Nasdaq-100 on July 7. Here's Where History Says the Stock Could Trade 1 Year From Now.

On July 7, Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) is scheduled to begin trading as a member of the Nasdaq-100 index. The Nasdaq-100 comprises the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on Nasdaq, weighted by market capitalization.

For SpaceX, inclusion in the index represents a significant step toward mainstream recognition beyond technology investors. With that said, history shows that inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 rarely serves as an independent driver of sustained outperformance.

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Watch out for momentum traders

The anticipation of inclusion in a major index tends to amplify trading volume and expand valuation multiples as momentum traders and growth funds pile in ahead of the official rebalancing date. Let's take a look at what happened with the share prices of some companies that joined the Nasdaq-100 in recent years.

• Peloton Interactive was added to the Nasdaq-100 in December 2020. Leading up to its inclusion in the index, Peloton saw its shares surge nearly 400% as the COVID-19 pandemic supercharged demand for at-home fitness equipment. Shortly after joining the index, Peloton reached an all-time price of $167. But within about 13 months, Peloton had been removed from the Nasdaq-100 and the stock had fallen roughly 83% from its peak as pandemic tailwinds faded.
• Also in 2020, Okta experienced meaningful appreciation in its share price as demand for cloud-based identity and access management solutions surged amid the rapid shift to remote work. By early 2021, Okta stock had climbed to an all-time high shortly after its inclusion in the Nasdaq-100. In a post-pandemic world, however, Okta's growth rates have normalized substantially. As a result, the stock has been stuck in a prolonged period of sideways trading for years now.
• In December 2024, Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, joined the Nasdaq-100. During this calendar year, the stock gained 358%, driven primarily by the company's high-profile Bitcoin treasury strategy. After peaking near the time of its late-2024 addition to the index, Strategy stock declined 68% by the end of 2025 amid shifting sentiment toward crypto proxies and Bitcoin's volatile price action.
• Palantir Technologies also joined the Nasdaq-100 in December 2024. During that year, the artificial intelligence (AI) analytics darling posted a 340% return. Palantir stock continued to rally through much of 2025, supported by its strong business fundamentals. However, by mid-2026, shares have pulled back sharply from their late 2025 highs -- illustrating how even fundamentally sound companies will experience volatility once an initial wave of buying subsides.
• Axon Enterprise also posted robust gains throughout 2024 as law enforcement and public safety agencies adopted its AI-enhanced hardware platform. After joining the index in December 2024, Axon -- like Palantir -- maintained upward share price momentum during 2025, yet has experienced notable pullbacks from its peaks this year.

The common thread across these examples is that temporary inflows provide a one-time lift rather than a permanent valuation floor. A company's subsequent performance hinges on whether the underlying business consistently delivers impressive execution and guidance once the spotlight of index membership moves elsewhere.

What will happen to SpaceX stock after joining the Nasdaq-100?

Just like the companies explored above, SpaceX enters the Nasdaq-100 riding pre-inclusion momentum. This is driven by a combination of enthusiasm among retail investors and mechanical buying by exchange-traded funds. I would not be surprised to see SpaceX stock exhibit some near-term support -- possibly pushing it back toward its highs.

Smart investors understand that this excitement does not alter the need for the company to prove durable progress over the coming quarters, though. Starlink subscriber growth, launch cadence, and an emerging AI infrastructure business must converge to demonstrate a path to sustained profitability. These factors will ultimately determine whether SpaceX's current valuation can be maintained or expanded.

Should SpaceX's quarterly updates fall short of the market's already elevated expectations, the stock could easily face profit-taking and trade at a materially lower price one year from now. This is consistent with the pattern observed in several Nasdaq-100 additions in recent history.

While index membership supports liquidity and credibility, it should be seen as a reflection of past achievements rather than a guarantee of strong future results. Investors evaluating SpaceX stock would be wise to focus on the company's operational milestones and cash-flow trajectory rather than the temporary tailwind of index-driven capital inflows. All told, a stock's record after inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 is quite mixed and frequently disappointing for investors expecting continued multibagger gains.

Adam Spatacco has positions in Palantir Technologies. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Axon Enterprise, Bitcoin, Okta, Palantir Technologies, and Peloton Interactive. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.