Could SpaceX Become the First $10 Trillion Company? Here's What Would Need to Happen.

The historic initial public offering (IPO) of Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX), more commonly known as SpaceX, represented a watershed moment in capital markets. The IPO price of $135 per share valued the company at approximately $1.75 trillion.

However, SpaceX stock opened on Nasdaq near $150 -- achieving a $2 trillion market cap on its first day of trading. At its debut, SpaceX was instantly among the world's most valuable public companies.

SpaceX's swift entry into the trillion-dollar club underscores enthusiasm for its blend of launch capabilities, expanding satellite network, and bold forays into artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure. While the IPO was monumental, a bigger question now centers on whether this momentum can scale the company to an unprecedented market capitalization over the coming decade.

Let's dig into SpaceX's growth prospects and assess if the stock can feasibly reach a $10 trillion valuation in the years ahead.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

What does SpaceX's revenue trajectory look like?

SpaceX's revenue profile is supported by three interconnected pillars that evolve at different rates.

SpaceX's launch business should continue to benefit from its reusable rocket technology, combined with rising global demand for satellite deployment and crewed missions. Starship's maturation is expected to bring further cost reductions to orbital operations, potentially unlocking a higher launch cadence and new commercial and government contracts. I think it's reasonable to expect this segment to generate steady, not explosive, growth as competition in the space exploration industry intensifies.

Starlink represents the company's nearest growth engine. The constellation has already brought broadband connectivity to remote regions and is expanding aggressively across maritime, aviation, and enterprise markets. Given this success, Oppenheimer analyst Timothy Horan cites Starlink's potential to disrupt traditional telecoms through direct-to-cell capabilities, positioning the network as a global connectivity layer that could capture market share from terrestrial providers.

The most transformative upside, however, lies in AI infrastructure. Over the last month, SpaceX has secured $82 billion worth of partnerships with Google Cloud, Anthropic, and Reflection AI. Meanwhile, the company is exploring cross-synergies with xAI for model training and Cursor for developer tooling.

What would it take for SpaceX to reach a $10 trillion valuation?

SpaceX's current trading levels already reflect extraordinary optimism. Based on its 2025 revenue of $18.7 billion, SpaceX commands a price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of roughly 110 -- rich by any historical standard. Furthermore, Wall Street's long-term forecasts diverge sharply on the company's revenue profile.

Goldman Sachs projects SpaceX's total revenue to reach $474 billion by 2030, fueled primarily by the AI division, which is expected to surge from roughly $3 billion today to $322 billion. Analysts at Morningstar built a comprehensive discounted cash flow (DCF) model and concluded that SpaceX has a far more conservative growth profile. Morningstar projects that SpaceX will generate only $67 billion in revenue by 2030 and could scale to roughly $500 billion by 2045. The disparity in Goldman and Morningstar's timelines to reach roughly the same revenue profile is striking. Oppenheimer was less granular on absolute dollars but emphasized a total addressable market approaching $10 trillion by 2035 between satellite communications and AI infrastructure.

Blending these perspectives, I think a plausible 10-year revenue estimate for SpaceX could fall in the $200 billion range by the mid-2030s. This would assume continued Starlink subscriber momentum in enterprise markets, successful Starship commercialization, and scaling AI infrastructure contracts converting into a sustained, high-margin revenue stream.

Against this backdrop, reaching a $10 trillion market capitalization at this revenue level would require a forward P/S multiple of 50x. While that's lower than today's multiple, such a valuation still embeds substantial growth expectations and a durable competitive moat.

Smart investors need to be realistic when it comes to SpaceX

It's important to note that the math exercise above is inherently speculative and should serve only to illustrate the scale of SpaceX's ambitions. A $10 trillion SpaceX would require near-perfect execution across multiple frontiers simultaneously.

History shows that even the most revolutionary technology platforms rarely sustain the valuation profile and growth rates needed to reach such historic levels without periodic corrections. While SpaceX possesses unique technological momentum and a visionary founder and CEO in Elon Musk, translating these ambitions into consistent, profitable revenue streams at scale remains both a demanding challenge and highly uncertain.

The numbers explored above highlight both the breathtaking upside and the hurdles that SpaceX must clear to justify maintaining a premium valuation. In the end, whether SpaceX becomes the first $10 trillion stock will depend less on today's enthusiasm and more on the consistent execution of management's most ambitious promises throughout the AI infrastructure era.

Adam Spatacco has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Goldman Sachs Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.