Here's What a $25,000 Investment in SpaceX Stock Could Look Like in 5 Years

Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) stock finished its first week on the market with a 37% gain. That's a solid showing, although the stock took a step backward on June 22 with a 16% sell-off.

If you invested $25,000 at SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO), you'd already have more than $28,600. What if you held on for the next five years?

Is SpaceX going to the moon?

At this point, SpaceX stock is higher on little more than hype. The fundamentals don't support it, although investors might point to the company's long-term opportunity. Sales increased 15% year over year in the 2026 first quarter, and the company is likely to report second-quarter results sometime in late July or early August.

Image source: Getty Images.

In its favor, SpaceX is the largest rocket-launching and satellite broadband company in the world. However, it sees its greatest opportunities in artificial intelligence (AI), specifically, AI enterprise applications. AI and space could potentially collide if the company can harness solar power to run data centers in space, which is one of Elon Musk's goals.

For the time being, SpaceX is reporting a high net loss, and it might get worse before it gets better. It's investing in company growth, and now it has IPO-related expenses. With some of the proceeds of the sale, it plans to buy AI coding company Cursor for $60 billion. According to the Wall Street Journal, Cursor's annualized sales increased from $100 million to $1 billion in 2025 and reached $4 billion as of this month. That could jump-start SpaceX's growth engine.

What will SpaceX look like in five years?

It's hard to forecast five years out, but SpaceX could be growing fast and reporting a net profit. Even if it's doing those things, so much of that is already built into the price. If it isn't, it's a recipe for the stock to be much lower than today.

For some historical context, let's see how some of the biggest IPOs on the market performed after five years vs. the S&P 500.

Data source: Renaissance Capital, YCharts. Rivian will be five years old in November 2026.

These results don't show any particular pattern, and that's kind of the point. With its net losses and high valuation -- it trades at 125 times sales at this price -- it's extremely risky. Rivian was a flop, and if SpaceX is anything like it, $25,000 would be worth just $4,000 in five years. If it's as successful as Meta, it could be worth $67,000.

If you have a low tolerance for risk, you might want to wait this one out. If you have a high risk tolerance, you might want to invest a smaller sum in SpaceX.

Jennifer Saibil has positions in Rivian Automotive. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Meta Platforms and Visa. The Motley Fool recommends Alibaba Group and General Motors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.