Natural gas: Lower TTF path but winter risks – Rabobank

Rabobank’s energy strategists Joe DeLaura and Florence Schmit cut TTF Natural Gas forecasts on easing supply risks from the Strait of Hormuz reopening. They now see TTF at €47/MWh in Q3 and €50/MWh in Q4, with €42/MWh in 2027, but warn that tighter winter balances, stronger Asian LNG demand and unresolved geopolitical issues keep significant upside risk in place.

TTF eased but winter still tight

"We are lowering our TTF gas forecast to €47/MWh in Q3 from €60/MWh and €50/MWh in Q4 from our previous forecast of €69/MWh, with 2027 prices now forecast at €42/MWh."

"Similar easing in supply risks has prompted us to cut our TTF gas price forecast to €47/MWh in Q3 and €50/MWh in Q4, reflecting an initial lower price path as LNG flows slowly recover."

"At the same time, the bearish price response following the signing of the MoU is already triggering a demand reaction."

"In this context, Europe still faces a growing challenge when it comes to winter supply."

"We are revising our TTF gas forecast to €49-50/MWh for this winter but caution that large upside risks remain tied to a potential deterioration of peace talks between the US and Iran."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)