Is SpaceX Starting an Nvidia-Style Run?

Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) blasted off on its market debut on Friday, climbing 19%, then advanced by an additional 19% on its second trading day. All of this has brought SpaceX to a market cap of $2.5 trillion, placing it among the world's largest tech companies.

The SpaceX IPO was the biggest ever, as the company raised $75 billion. But the operation just became even bigger. The company's underwriters exercised an overallotment option early this week, allowing them to buy more than 83 million extra shares -- and this operation brought the total raised to $85.7 billion.

It's clear that many investors are excited about SpaceX, and this could be due to the fact that it operates in the three exciting growth areas of space, artificial intelligence (AI), and connectivity -- and it may also be linked to the idea that Elon Musk, known for huge ambitions, leads the company. Considering all of this, is SpaceX starting an Nvidia-style run? Let's find out.

Image source: Getty Images.

A 1,000% gain

So, first, let's zoom in on the performance of Nvidia, the world's No. 1 AI chip designer. The company has seen earnings soar in recent years thanks to this dominance, and as a result, investors have piled into the stock. Nvidia shares have advanced 1,000% over five years. The company represented one of the best ways to bet on the AI boom, and this bet has proven itself to be a winning one.

Unlike SpaceX, however, Nvidia's share price didn't skyrocket right out of the gate. The company went public back in 1999, but for many years, the stock traded for just a few dollars. It only took off within the past few years amid the excitement about AI -- and as Nvidia's revenue and profit surged.

SpaceX isn't a brand-new company. Like Nvidia, it's been around for decades developing its technology, but so far, its financial picture looks quite different from that of the AI chip giant. While Nvidia is generating more than $215 billion in annual revenue and $120 billion in net income, SpaceX's investments to support its technology developments -- particularly in the AI business -- pushed the company to a loss last year. In 2025, SpaceX's capital expenditures in the AI unit reached $12 billion, and though the company reported total revenue of $18 billion, it finished the year with a loss of $4.9 billion.

Starlink's key role

SpaceX is earlier along the growth path than Nvidia, and it's still not clear if and when it may reach certain goals -- such as the development of data centers in space and the transport of people and materials to Mars. Right now, the company's connectivity business, Starlink, is driving revenue, as it brought in $11.4 billion last year on that total of $18 billion. Starlink offers satellite-based internet services and has seen its subscriptions explode higher from customers around the world. It's grown subscriber numbers from 2.3 million in 2023 to more than 10 million as of this March.

But SpaceX's goals are so far-reaching and depend so greatly on innovation and the development of new technology that it might take quite some time for the company to attain them -- and generate significant levels of revenue and profitability. So it's unlikely that the earnings picture, alone, will drive stock performance in the quarters to come.

That said, many investors are buying shares of SpaceX because they believe in the company's ability to reach certain milestones over time -- and they aim to get in early on the stock so that they might fully benefit down the road. It's a risk, and that makes SpaceX a buy for the aggressive investor -- but not for the cautious investor.

Now, let's consider our question: Based on all of this, could SpaceX be starting an Nvidia-style run? In the coming weeks and even months, it's possible. Investors are excited about SpaceX's programs and the possibilities that eventually could result in explosive growth. But if the upcoming earnings reports disappoint or if the company faces any technology setback, it could weigh heavily on stock performance. It's important to keep this in mind before rushing to buy this hot stock post-IPO.

Adria Cimino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.