Why Casey's General Stores Stock Popped Today
Key Points
Casey's General Stores beat soundly on both top and bottom lines last night.
Whether the convenience store chain can repeat the feat in 2027 may depend largely on gas prices.
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Casey's General Stores (NASDAQ: CASY) stock jumped 15.6% through 11:40 a.m. ET Wednesday, after reporting better than expected earnings last night.
Heading into the company's fiscal Q4 2026 report, analysts predicted Casey's would earn $3.31 per share on $4.2 billion in quarterly sales. In fact, Casey's reported $4.37 per share in profit on nearly $4.6 billion in sales.
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Casey's Q4 earnings
Casey's same-store sales jumped 5.5% "inside" -- meaning not counting fuel sales -- and fuel sales increased 1.5% by volume. Profits were higher inside than outside, but overall, $4.37 per share in quarterly earnings translated into a 66.2% year-over-year increase in GAAP profits.
Q4 was, of course, the final quarter of Casey's fiscal year, so let's look next at the full-year numbers: In fiscal 2026, Casey's grew its sales 10.7%, and grew earnings 30.9% to $19.16 per share. Inside same-store sales were up 4.2% for the year, which means that sales growth accelerated in the year's final quarter (hitting the aforementioned 5.5%).
What's next for Casey's stock
So Casey's got momentum as it exits fiscal 2026. Now, what does fiscal 2027 look like?
Turning to guidance, it seems we're looking at something of a slowdown, with inside same-store sales predicted to range from 2% to 5%, and fuel sales (again, by volume, not dollars) roughly flat year over year.
Now here's the bad news: Analysts polled by Yahoo! Finance are expecting Casey's revenue to grow 9% this year. On the one hand, that's a bit slower than fiscal 2026's growth rate. On the other hand, it's well above the same-store sales growth Casey's envisions. High gas prices could help Casey's hit the analyst target, but if the Hormuz crisis resolves and gas prices fall, a 2027 earnings miss is certainly possible.
Should you buy stock in Casey's General Stores right now?
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Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Casey's General Stores. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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