After Turmoil in March, Will the S&P 500 Tumble in April? Here's What History Says.

After three years of explosive gains, the S&P 500 had a tumultuous start to 2026, and that's as a variety of elements upset the positive momentum. Concerns brewed about the pace of spending on artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure -- and if the revenue opportunity really would make it all worthwhile. Investors also worried about the valuations of AI stocks, and stocks in general, as they surpassed levels only reached once before. Finally, concerns about the economy, the pace of interest rate cuts, and conflict in Iran added to the uncertainty.

All of this pushed the S&P 500 to a decline of 5% in March and a negative performance for the year, too. In recent days, however, the market has rebounded -- even erasing its losses since the start of the war in Iran in late February.

So right now is the perfect time to ask: After the turmoil last month, will the S&P 500 tumble in April or continue its recovery? Let's consider what history has to say.

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Recent stock market troubles

Before we look at the data, however, it's essential to consider why the market soared in recent years and to take a closer look at the latest troubles. AI stocks propelled the overall market higher over the past few years, and this is for one major reason: The technology, like others of the past, such as the internet or the printing press, could be a game changer for all industries -- and for all of us in our daily lives.

AI has the potential to help businesses and individuals become more efficient -- and it can help us accomplish tasks and develop ideas that may have been out of reach before. This should have many positive effects, and one of them is boosting corporate earnings.

So, it's not surprising that investors piled into AI stocks, and that these stocks led the way in this bull market.

But, as mentioned, over the past few months, investors wondered whether AI stocks had climbed too high, too quickly. At the same time, general economic pressures and the war in Iran made for a difficult investing environment -- investors like to see what's ahead, but these elements made that tough, if not impossible.

What happened to turn things around in recent days? President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire in Iran to allow for negotiations, and even though talks this weekend didn't result in an agreement, investors are optimistic that the efforts will continue.

Bright growth prospects

Earnings growth prospects may also support the optimism. For the first quarter of this year, S&P 500 earnings are forecast to climb more than 12%, according to FactSet. And if this happens, it will be the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth, the data show.

And just recently, Fundstrat's head of research, Tom Lee, told CNBC that he thinks the market has bottomed -- and is set to head for new highs.

All of that sounds positive -- now, let's consider what history has to say about the month of April. In the past two Aprils, 2024 and 2025, the S&P 500 has declined, so if it were to fall again this year, that would mark three consecutive years of April declines. Throughout the history of the index, it's only done that once -- in the Aprils of 1985, 1986, and 1987, according to Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group. An April drop three years in a row is "really rare," he wrote in a post on X.

So, if we look at history alone, it's telling us that the S&P 500 is much more likely to rise than to fall this month. Does this mean we should be 100% sure about a rebound? Not exactly. Though historical patterns are useful, they can't guarantee a certain outcome. Any economic or geopolitical surprise could spark a shift in market sentiment or stock performance.

But there are two elements of good news here. First, history supports the idea of market gains this month, and, more importantly, it shows that the S&P 500 has advanced significantly over time -- suggesting a buy-and-hold strategy is the winning one.

Adria Cimino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.