Oil, Geopolitics, and ExxonMobil: Here's Where the Stock Could Be in 12 Months

ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM), one of the world's largest publicly traded oil and gas companies, isn't usually considered a high-growth stock. But over the past 12 months, its shares have rallied more than 60% and outpaced the S&P 500's 30% gain.

ExxonMobil's stock outperformed the market as the escalating Middle East conflict and other macro headwinds drove oil prices higher. Could it head even higher over the next 12 months?

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Understanding ExxonMobil's business

ExxonMobil operates in over 56 countries. It's involved in upstream exploration and production, downstream refining and marketing, and the production of plastics and petrochemicals.

ExxonMobil gets most of its oil from the United States. Its biggest oil fields are in the Permian Basin, and it's expanding its offshore projects across the Gulf of Mexico. It has a growing presence in Guyana, one of the world's fastest-growing oil regions; in Canada, where it's importing oil sands; and in other countries in Latin America, Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. Roughly a fifth of ExxonMobil's oil and gas production still comes from the Middle East, which exposes it more to the recent military conflicts than other oil majors like Chevron.

How fast is ExxonMobil growing?

Rising oil prices boost ExxonMobil's upstream profits, but they can squeeze the margins of its downstream operations. However, its scale and diversification usually offset that pressure by diluting those higher input costs. That's why it's grown steadily over the past few years, even as oil prices have endured some wild swings.

From 2021 to 2025, ExxonMobil's EPS grew at a 6% CAGR. From 2025 to 2028, analysts expect its EPS to increase at a 14% CAGR.

Two main catalysts will drive that acceleration. First, it expects its Permian Basin operations to produce up to 2.5 million barrels of oil per day by 2030, up from its average daily production of 1.6 million barrels in 2025. Second, it plans to ramp up its daily production in Guyana from 700,000 barrels in 2025 to 1.3 million barrels in 2027.

It's also quietly expanding its liquefied natural gas (LNG), chemical, and low-carbon businesses to curb its long-term dependence on crude oil. All of those growth engines should offset the near-term headwinds for its downstream business and its disruptions in the Middle East.

Where will ExxonMobil's stock be in a year?

At $165, ExxonMobil's stock still looks reasonably valued at 20 times this year's earnings. It also pays a forward yield of 2.6%, and it's raised its payout annually for 43 consecutive years. Assuming oil prices stay elevated, it matches analysts' 2027 estimates and maintains the same forward multiple -- ExxonMobil's stock could easily rise another 10% over the next 12 months.

Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Chevron. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.