Everyone Is Betting on Polymarket, but Smart Investors Are Betting on This AI Stock Instead
Key Points
Polymarket is becoming a popular platform for short-term speculators.
But Nvidia, the top AI stock, will still generate more reliable long-term gains.
- 10 stocks we like better than Nvidia ›
Polymarket, the cryptocurrency-based prediction market, has become a top betting platform for future events since its launch in 2020. It hosted nearly half a million monthly active traders as of last October, according to The Block, even though it's been banned in over a dozen countries.
Polymarket is popular because it allows traders to bet on economic data, elections, geopolitical events, tech product launches, and other news events. It's also easy to use because its traders bet on simple "yes" or "no" outcomes with their USD Coin (CRYPTO: USDC) deposits.
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But as with other binary betting platforms, it's impossible to consistently make money on Polymarket. You might make some money with a few correct predictions, but a few wrong decisions will easily erase those gains.
So instead of hopping on that bandwagon, it's smarter to invest in a long-term, secular trend like artificial intelligence (AI) for more reliable returns. One such stock is Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), which has rallied more than 24,000% over the past ten years.
Why did Nvidia's stock soar?
Nvidia is the world's largest producer of discrete GPUs. Unlike CPUs, which are optimized for sequential tasks, GPUs are designed to process parallel tasks. That key difference makes GPUs better suited for graphics processing, cryptocurrency mining, and training AI algorithms than stand-alone CPUs. In the past, Nvidia generated most of its revenue from the gaming PC market. Today, it generates most of its revenue from the data center market.
Most of the world's top AI companies -- including OpenAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet's Google, and Meta -- use Nvidia's high-end data center GPUs to train their AI algorithms. Nvidia locks in those customers with CUDA (Compute Unified Device Architecture), its proprietary programming platform for its own chips, and other sticky services.
That's why Nvidia now controls over 90% of the discrete GPU market, and it's widely considered the top producer of picks and shovels for the AI gold rush. It faces some competition from AMD's (NASDAQ: AMD) cheaper data center GPUs and Broadcom's (NASDAQ: AVGO) custom AI accelerators for hyperscalers, but its first-mover's advantage, sticky ecosystem, and best-in-breed reputation should keep it at the top of the market for "general purpose" AI GPUs.
Nvidia has also consistently maintained that lead through its AI-oriented chip architecture upgrades, including Turing (2019), Ampere (2020), Hopper (2022), and Blackwell (2024). Its next architecture, Rubin, is scheduled to arrive in the second half of 2026.
From fiscal 2015 to fiscal 2025 (which ended in Jan. 2025), Nvidia's revenue and split-adjusted EPS grew at CAGRs of 39% and 58%, respectively. That growth spurt made it the world's most valuable company with a market capitalization of $4.8 trillion.
Why is Nvidia still a wise investment?
It might seem too late to invest in Nvidia after that massive rally, but it has more upside potential as the AI market expands and evolves. According to Grand View Research, the global AI market could still grow at a 30.6% CAGR from 2026 to 2033 as AI technologies are more widely used across the "automotive, healthcare, retail, finance, and manufacturing" sectors.
From fiscal 2025 to fiscal 2028, analysts expect Nvidia's revenue and EPS to grow at CAGRs of 48% and 47%, respectively. Those are incredible growth rates for a stock that trades at 27 times forward earnings.
If Nvidia matches analysts' estimates through fiscal 2028, grows its EPS at a 25% CAGR through fiscal 2032 (which starts in Feb. 2031), and trades at 25 times forward earnings by the beginning of the final year, its stock could nearly triple over the next five years. So by simply buying and holding Nvidia's stock today, you'd have a good shot at outperforming active Polymarket traders who are constantly betting on short-term binary outcomes.
Should you buy stock in Nvidia right now?
Before you buy stock in Nvidia, consider this:
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Leo Sun has positions in Amazon and Meta Platforms. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Advanced Micro Devices, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool recommends Broadcom. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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