Should You Buy BioMarin Pharmaceutical Before Feb. 18?
Key Points
BioMarin expects strong sales for its rare-disease drug, Voxzogo, in Q4.
The company also has several important catalysts on the way in the first half of the year.
However, uncertainty about competition for Voxzogo could be enough to keep investors on the sideline for now.
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BioMarin Pharmaceutical's (NASDAQ: BMRN) website doesn't show any scheduled events on its calendar over the next month. However, that means nothing. The drugmaker will almost certainly report its 2025 full-year and fourth-quarter results in the coming weeks.
Last year, BioMarin provided its Q4 update on the third Wednesday in February. The company could choose the same day this year. If it does, investors may want to circle Feb. 18, 2026, on their calendars. But should you buy the biotech stock before then?
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Buy, buy, buy?
One reason to consider buying BioMarin before its Q4 results are announced is that rare-disease drug Voxzogo is expected to have a strong quarter. CFO Brian Mueller said in the company's Q3 earnings call that Voxzogo revenue should "reach its highest level of the year" in Q4.
The primary concern for most investors when buying a stock before a quarterly earnings announcement is the possibility that the company will fall short of Wall Street's estimates. But BioMarin arguably lowered the chances of a negative surprise by raising the lower end of its 2025 revenue guidance to $3.15 billion, based in part on "expectations for the fourth quarter." The midpoint of the drugmaker's guidance range reflects double-digit year-over-year revenue growth.
Another reason to invest in BioMarin sooner rather than later isn't related to the Q4 update. The company has several potential catalysts on the way. For example, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) set a PDUFA date of Feb. 28, 2026, for an approval decision on Palynziq in the treatment of adolescents ages 12 through 17 with phenylketonuria. European Union approval for this indication could also come in the first half of the year.
Additionally, BioMarin expects to announce results from two Phase 3 clinical studies in the first half of 2026. It also plans to file for full FDA approval of Voxzogo for the treatment of achondroplasia.
Reasons to hold off
On the other hand, investors won't have to look hard to find reasons to hold off on buying BioMarin's stock. For one thing, management's optimistic outlook about Q4 is based on the timing of large contracted ex-U.S. orders for Voxzogo. If those orders don't come in as anticipated, BioMarin will miss analysts' Q4 estimates.
The more crucial reason to wait on buying the stock, though, is the longer-term uncertainty surrounding Voxzogo. Mueller acknowledged this uncertainty during the Q3 earnings call, noting that BioMarin's more pessimistic outlook for 2027 reflects a scenario in which two competitors successfully launch rival therapies and capture significant market share over the next couple of years.
Final verdict
I don't think investors need to rush to buy BioMarin stock before its Q4 update. The potential competition for Voxzogo is a legitimate concern. However, BioMarin's pending acquisition of Amicus Therapeutics (NASDAQ: FOLD) should boost growth. This biotech stock could be a potential turnaround play, but waiting on the sidelines for now isn't a bad idea.
Should you buy stock in BioMarin Pharmaceutical right now?
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Keith Speights has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends BioMarin Pharmaceutical. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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