US: Even a mild recession has become unlikely – Commerzbank
Source Fxstreet
In the United States, the feared recession has so far failed to materialize – but could it still come? Economists at Commerzbank explain why we have changed their forecast and no longer expect a recession.
Recession no longer the most likely scenario
Interest rate-sensitive residential investment in the US is picking up again and US banks are slowing the tightening of lending standards. Together with the recent high pace of growth, this makes even a mild US recession less likely.
While we had previously expected a slight decline in US gross domestic product for the summer half-year, we now anticipate a moderate increase. The absence of a mild recession raises our growth forecast for 2024 as a whole from 1.0% to 2.5%; for 2025 it rises from 1.0% to 1.5%. The unemployment rate will remain very low for a long time to come.
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Recommended Articles
October hike odds climb toward 60% as Goldman and BofA both flip — what Warsh's "dose of accommodation" really changedRate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
Rate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
Gold holds steady below $4,150 amid elevated US yields Gold price (XAU/USD) trades on a flat note near $4,140 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. Pressure from a stronger US Dollar (USD) and elevated US Treasury yields was offset by reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike this month.
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades on a flat note near $4,140 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. Pressure from a stronger US Dollar (USD) and elevated US Treasury yields was offset by reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike this month.
WTI rises to near $89.50 as Middle East supply threats offset Persian Gulf recoveryWest Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around $89.50 per barrel during the Asian hours on Wednesday. Crude oil climbed as persistent risks to Middle East energy flows overshadowed signs of rising supply from the region.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around $89.50 per barrel during the Asian hours on Wednesday. Crude oil climbed as persistent risks to Middle East energy flows overshadowed signs of rising supply from the region.
Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD retraces gains and nears two-month lows at $4,104Gold (XAU/USD) retraces Tuesday’s gains on Wednesday and resumes its broader bearish trend, with the US Dollar (USD) appreciating across the board, as investors brace for the release of the minutes of the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting.
Gold (XAU/USD) retraces Tuesday’s gains on Wednesday and resumes its broader bearish trend, with the US Dollar (USD) appreciating across the board, as investors brace for the release of the minutes of the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting.
Euro slides to a 17-month low as France's budget crisis spreads — can 1.12 hold?EUR/USD touched 1.1162 on 5 October, its weakest level in 17 months, as France's budget standoff pushed the 10-year OAT above 5% and the OAT-Bund spread to roughly 160bp — the widest since the 2011-12 eurozone debt crisis. The euro now trades near 1.1215 ahead of US jobless claims and a $22 billion 30-year Treasury auction. Here are the levels and the two scenarios to watch.
EUR/USD touched 1.1162 on 5 October, its weakest level in 17 months, as France's budget standoff pushed the 10-year OAT above 5% and the OAT-Bund spread to roughly 160bp — the widest since the 2011-12 eurozone debt crisis. The euro now trades near 1.1215 ahead of US jobless claims and a $22 billion 30-year Treasury auction. Here are the levels and the two scenarios to watch.
