Norges Bank gets ready for the next rate cuts the following year – Commerzbank
Source Fxstreet
Norges Bank ultimately did what was perceived reasonable by the markets. It maintained its position that the key interest rate will not be lowered until next year, Commerzbank’s FX analyst Antje Praefcke notes.
Weak krone remains a concern for Norges Bank
“Although inflation has fallen somewhat more strongly than expected, the weak krone remains a concern for Norges Bank, which is why it does not want to lower the key rate prematurely.”
“Norges Bank removed the reference to possible interest rate hikes from the statement. “We believe that there is a need to keep the policy rate at today’s level for a period ahead but that the time to ease monetary policy is approaching,” said the central bank’s Governor.”
“In short, Norges Bank is still restrictive as it continues to see risks to inflation. However, it is preparing the rate cut cycle by no longer citing the possibility of a rate increase. The market is likely to view the prospect of a rising real interest rate positively, which is why the krone was able to appreciate moderately even after the decision.”
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Recommended Articles
Dollar presses 102 as the 10-year yield sits at 5.14% — and October hike odds are only 17%The dollar index closed at 101.99 (+0.20%) on Monday after briefly topping 102.07, while the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.14% and the 2-year hit 4.774% — yet futures price only about a 17% chance of a hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, versus roughly 90% for December. The driver is a global bond selloff, not a Fed repricing: France's 10-year OAT jumped to 4.84% ~ 4.94% and the OAT-Bund spread widened to 140 ~ 146bp. Here are the levels, the cross-asset read-through and what to watch.
The dollar index closed at 101.99 (+0.20%) on Monday after briefly topping 102.07, while the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.14% and the 2-year hit 4.774% — yet futures price only about a 17% chance of a hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, versus roughly 90% for December. The driver is a global bond selloff, not a Fed repricing: France's 10-year OAT jumped to 4.84% ~ 4.94% and the OAT-Bund spread widened to 140 ~ 146bp. Here are the levels, the cross-asset read-through and what to watch.
Meta's AI bill just hit $145 billion — and it issued a new share class to pay for itMeta reported record third-quarter revenue of $64.60 billion, up 26% from a year earlier, and raised full-year 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $135-145 billion from $130-145 billion. To fund that build-out without touching Mark Zuckerberg's voting control, the company announced a 2-for-1 stock split that hands every Class A holder a new non-voting Class C share. Here are the four lines that matter, the peer group that is being re-rated alongside it, and the bull and bear cases.
Meta reported record third-quarter revenue of $64.60 billion, up 26% from a year earlier, and raised full-year 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $135-145 billion from $130-145 billion. To fund that build-out without touching Mark Zuckerberg's voting control, the company announced a 2-for-1 stock split that hands every Class A holder a new non-voting Class C share. Here are the four lines that matter, the peer group that is being re-rated alongside it, and the bull and bear cases.
The Fed will sit still on October 28 — but 100 of 100 economists now expect a December hikeA Reuters poll run October 16-20 found 94 of 100 economists expecting the Fed to hold at 3.75-4.00% on October 28 — and all 100 expecting a hike in December, against less than half a month earlier. The market is close to the same price, with CME FedWatch at roughly 17% for October and 82.8% for December. With the Fed in blackout since October 17, here are the five dates that decide the rest of the year, what each one is priced for, and the two directions each can take.
A Reuters poll run October 16-20 found 94 of 100 economists expecting the Fed to hold at 3.75-4.00% on October 28 — and all 100 expecting a hike in December, against less than half a month earlier. The market is close to the same price, with CME FedWatch at roughly 17% for October and 82.8% for December. With the Fed in blackout since October 17, here are the five dates that decide the rest of the year, what each one is priced for, and the two directions each can take.
Get the latest gold price analysis, forex gold insights, and XAU/USD analysis for October 23, 2026. Read on for the details.
Nasdaq closes at 26,008.86 — 8.9 points above 26,000, and the credit market never blinkedThe Nasdaq Composite fell 2.60% to 26,008.86 on October 22, its worst session since June, as Meta sank 6.98% on 2026 capex guidance of $135–145 billion. But the equal-weight S&P 500 rose 0.73%, high-yield credit was flat and 10-year yields fell 20 basis points. This was an AI de-rating, not a risk-off event — here is the transmission chain, the 29,000 / 28,200 levels and what would prove it wrong.
The Nasdaq Composite fell 2.60% to 26,008.86 on October 22, its worst session since June, as Meta sank 6.98% on 2026 capex guidance of $135–145 billion. But the equal-weight S&P 500 rose 0.73%, high-yield credit was flat and 10-year yields fell 20 basis points. This was an AI de-rating, not a risk-off event — here is the transmission chain, the 29,000 / 28,200 levels and what would prove it wrong.
Related Instrument
