Violence and consequences for the market – UBS
Source Fxstreet
The shooting at former US President Trump’s election rally during the weekend has provoked only a limited market reaction. Markets are concerned about policy probabilities, and while individuals may condemn acts of violence against political candidates, they will not necessarily change their policy projections, UBS strategist Paul Donovan notes.
US polarization grows, China’s data lower than expected
“There is a popular perception that acts of violence against a candidate increase their support, but this is not necessarily true. Analysis is complicated by US polarization, and shorter news cycles from social media. This adds to uncertainty without necessarily changing policy probabilities.”
“China released economic data overnight which was generally weak in tone. Second quarter GDP showed less growth than expected, and the June retail sales data signals ongoing weakness in domestic demand. The international implications of China’s data focus on the likely policy response to support domestic growth. The policy mix may have a bearing on China’s demand for commodities.”
“Federal Reserve Chair Powell is giving an interview today, but in the wake of last week’s Congressional testimony markets are unlikely to be too interested. The NY Empire State manufacturing sentiment poll can likewise be overlooked.”
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Recommended Articles
Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD drifts higher above $4,200 as Fed delivers expected cutGold price (XAU/USD) gains momentum to around $4,235 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The precious metal extends its upside after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered an expected third consecutive interest rate cut and maintained its outlook for just one cut in 2026.
Gold price (XAU/USD) gains momentum to around $4,235 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The precious metal extends its upside after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered an expected third consecutive interest rate cut and maintained its outlook for just one cut in 2026.
Gold remains bid as lack of Fed clarity and geopolitical frictions persistGold (XAU/USD) advances modestly on Friday as traders seem to book profits ahead of the weekend, yet clings to gains of over 0.51% after reaching a seven-week high of $4,353. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,302 as traders digest comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials.
Gold (XAU/USD) advances modestly on Friday as traders seem to book profits ahead of the weekend, yet clings to gains of over 0.51% after reaching a seven-week high of $4,353. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,302 as traders digest comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials.
Ethereum Price Slips Lower — $3,000 Looms as the Key BattlegroundEthereum is attempting to recover from a $3,026 low but remains below $3,200 and the 100-hour SMA, with a bearish trend line near $3,175 capping rebounds as bulls need a clean break above $3,200 to target $3,250–$3,400, while a drop below $3,050 risks a retest of $3,000 and $2,940.
Ethereum is attempting to recover from a $3,026 low but remains below $3,200 and the 100-hour SMA, with a bearish trend line near $3,175 capping rebounds as bulls need a clean break above $3,200 to target $3,250–$3,400, while a drop below $3,050 risks a retest of $3,000 and $2,940.
Analysts predict Bitcoin may face further declines towards the $70,000 mark if the Bank of Japan raises interest rates as expected.
Bitcoin Slides 5% as Sellers Lean In — Can BTC Reclaim $88,000?Bitcoin has dropped back below $88,000 after rolling over from $90,500, with price still trading under the 100-hour Simple Moving Average.
The sell-off found a floor at $85,151, and BTC is now consolidating near that base, but rebounds are facing pressure from a bearish trend line around $89,000.
Bulls need to retake $88,000–$89,000 to ease downside risk; failure to do so keeps $85,500–$85,000 and then $83,500 in play, with $80,000 as the deeper “line in the sand.”
Bitcoin (BTC) is back in damage-control mode after a sharp pullback wiped out recent gains. The price failed to reclaim the $90,000–$90,500 band, rolled over, and slid through $88,500 before briefly dipping under $87,000. Buyers did show up around $85,000, but the rebound so far looks more like stabilization than a clear trend reversal.
Bitcoin dips hard, finds a bid near $85,000（h3）
BTC’s latest move lower began when it couldn’t build follow-through above $90,000 and $90,500. Once that upside stalled, sellers took control and pushed price down through $88,500.
The slide accelerated enough to spike below $87,000, but the market didn’t free-fall. Bulls defended the $85,000 zone, printing a low at $85,151. Since then, Bitcoin has been consolidating below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the drop from the $93,560 swing high to the $85,151 low — a clue that the bounce is still shallow and that sellers haven’t fully backed off yet.
Structurally, BTC is still on the back foot:
It’s trading below $88,000, and
It remains below the 100-hour Simple Moving Average, keeping short-term trend pressure pointed downward.
Resistance is layered, and $89,000 is the problem area（h3）
If bulls try to turn this into a recovery, they’ll have to climb through multiple ceilings in quick succession.
First, BTC faces resistance around $87,150, followed by a more meaningful barrier near $87,500. From there, the market’s attention snaps back to $88,000 — the level BTC just lost and now needs to reclaim.
A close back above $88,000 would improve the tone, but it doesn’t solve the bigger issue: there’s a bearish trend line on the hourly BTC/USD chart (Kraken feed) with resistance near $89,000, which also lines up with the next technical hurdle.
If BTC can push through $89,000 and hold, the rebound could extend toward $90,000, with follow-through targets at $91,000 and $91,500. But until price clears that $88,000–$89,000 zone, rallies are at risk of being sold rather than chased.
If BTC fails to reclaim resistance, the downside path is clear（h3）
The near-term bear case is simple: if Bitcoin can’t climb back above the $87,000 area and keep traction, sellers may attempt another leg lower.
Support levels line up like this:
Immediate support: $85,500
First major support: $85,000
Next support: $83,500
Then $82,500 in the near term
Below that, the major “don’t break this” level is still $80,000. If BTC slips under $80,000, the risk of acceleration to the downside increases significantly — not because it’s magic, but because it’s the kind of psychological and structural level that tends to trigger forced de-risking.
Indicators: momentum still leans bearish（h3）
The intraday indicators aren’t offering much comfort yet:
Hourly MACD is losing pace in the bearish zone.
Hourly RSI remains below 50, suggesting sellers still have the upper hand on short timeframes.
So while the $85,000 defense held for now, the market hasn’t flipped bullish — it’s just stopped bleeding.
Bitcoin has dropped back below $88,000 after rolling over from $90,500, with price still trading under the 100-hour Simple Moving Average.
The sell-off found a floor at $85,151, and BTC is now consolidating near that base, but rebounds are facing pressure from a bearish trend line around $89,000.
Bulls need to retake $88,000–$89,000 to ease downside risk; failure to do so keeps $85,500–$85,000 and then $83,500 in play, with $80,000 as the deeper “line in the sand.”
Bitcoin (BTC) is back in damage-control mode after a sharp pullback wiped out recent gains. The price failed to reclaim the $90,000–$90,500 band, rolled over, and slid through $88,500 before briefly dipping under $87,000. Buyers did show up around $85,000, but the rebound so far looks more like stabilization than a clear trend reversal.
Bitcoin dips hard, finds a bid near $85,000（h3）
BTC’s latest move lower began when it couldn’t build follow-through above $90,000 and $90,500. Once that upside stalled, sellers took control and pushed price down through $88,500.
The slide accelerated enough to spike below $87,000, but the market didn’t free-fall. Bulls defended the $85,000 zone, printing a low at $85,151. Since then, Bitcoin has been consolidating below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the drop from the $93,560 swing high to the $85,151 low — a clue that the bounce is still shallow and that sellers haven’t fully backed off yet.
Structurally, BTC is still on the back foot:
It’s trading below $88,000, and
It remains below the 100-hour Simple Moving Average, keeping short-term trend pressure pointed downward.
Resistance is layered, and $89,000 is the problem area（h3）
If bulls try to turn this into a recovery, they’ll have to climb through multiple ceilings in quick succession.
First, BTC faces resistance around $87,150, followed by a more meaningful barrier near $87,500. From there, the market’s attention snaps back to $88,000 — the level BTC just lost and now needs to reclaim.
A close back above $88,000 would improve the tone, but it doesn’t solve the bigger issue: there’s a bearish trend line on the hourly BTC/USD chart (Kraken feed) with resistance near $89,000, which also lines up with the next technical hurdle.
If BTC can push through $89,000 and hold, the rebound could extend toward $90,000, with follow-through targets at $91,000 and $91,500. But until price clears that $88,000–$89,000 zone, rallies are at risk of being sold rather than chased.
If BTC fails to reclaim resistance, the downside path is clear（h3）
The near-term bear case is simple: if Bitcoin can’t climb back above the $87,000 area and keep traction, sellers may attempt another leg lower.
Support levels line up like this:
Immediate support: $85,500
First major support: $85,000
Next support: $83,500
Then $82,500 in the near term
Below that, the major “don’t break this” level is still $80,000. If BTC slips under $80,000, the risk of acceleration to the downside increases significantly — not because it’s magic, but because it’s the kind of psychological and structural level that tends to trigger forced de-risking.
Indicators: momentum still leans bearish（h3）
The intraday indicators aren’t offering much comfort yet:
Hourly MACD is losing pace in the bearish zone.
Hourly RSI remains below 50, suggesting sellers still have the upper hand on short timeframes.
So while the $85,000 defense held for now, the market hasn’t flipped bullish — it’s just stopped bleeding.
