Netherlands: Growth outlook lifted on exports – ABN AMRO

ABN AMRO economists Jan-Paul van de Kerke and Max Raatjes report that stronger-than-expected Dutch GDP in Q4 2025 and solid momentum into 2026 have led them to upgrade growth forecasts. They now see Dutch GDP expanding by 1.6% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027, with private consumption, government consumption and robust exports supporting the outlook.

Growth forecasts raised on solid momentum

"Dutch Q4 GDP came in stronger than anticipated at 0.5% q/q in what has been a very strong second half of 2025."

"Unsurprising were strong contributions to growth from private consumption and government consumption, factors which are expected to drive growth in 2026 as well."

"What was surprising was the strong positive contribution from net exports."

"The drag in 2025 from US tariffs is visible in export values to the US, particularly in value-added heavy exports of Dutch manufactured products, but this has been more than offset by exports to other countries."

"We have upgraded our growth forecast for 2026 to 1.6% (was 1.2%); 2027 is unchanged at 1.4%."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)