USD/CNH: Has a chance to break above 7.2600 – UOB Group

Source Fxstreet

USD is likely to edge higher; any advance is unlikely to break above 7.2600. In the longer run, the level to monitor now is 7.2800; the next resistance above 7.2800 is at 7.3115, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

The next resistance above 7.2800 is at 7.3115

24-HOUR VIEW: “USD rose sharply two days ago. Yesterday, we highlighted that ‘The rapid rise is deep in overbought territory, but there is no sign of a pullback just yet.’ We added, ‘Overall, it appears that USD is likely to trade in a range today, probably between 7.2200 and 7.2500.’ Although USD then traded in a wider range of 7.2137/7.2490, it closed largely unchanged at 7.2415 (-0.03%). Despite trading in a range, there has been a slight increase in momentum. Today, USD could edge higher, but as momentum is not strong, any advance is unlikely to break above 7.2600. The major resistance at 7.2800 is not expected to come into view. Support is at 7.2330, followed by 7.2150.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We have held a positive USD view since late last week. As we tracked the advance, we indicated yesterday (13 Nov, spot at 7.22470) that ‘The level to monitor is 7.2800 and the next resistance above 7.2800 is at 7.3115.’ There is no change in our view. Overall, only a breach of 7.2000 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level) would mean that the upward pressure has faded.”

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
October hike odds climb toward 60% as Goldman and BofA both flip — what Warsh's "dose of accommodation" really changedRate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
Author  Irene Q.
Sep 23, Wed
Rate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
placeholder
Four jobs reports in five days: what JOLTS, ADP, claims and the September payrolls mean for the October Fed decisionThe US labour market faces its densest data week of the month. JOLTS job openings land Tuesday (7.2 million expected), ADP on Wednesday (70,000 expected), initial claims on Thursday and the September non-farm payrolls on Friday (100,000 expected, down from 162,000). Markets price a 64%-70% chance of another quarter-point Fed hike on October 28. The dollar index sits at 100.77 and the S&P 500 at 7,729.8.
Author  Mitrade
Sep 28, Mon
The US labour market faces its densest data week of the month. JOLTS job openings land Tuesday (7.2 million expected), ADP on Wednesday (70,000 expected), initial claims on Thursday and the September non-farm payrolls on Friday (100,000 expected, down from 162,000). Markets price a 64%-70% chance of another quarter-point Fed hike on October 28. The dollar index sits at 100.77 and the S&P 500 at 7,729.8.
placeholder
Nvidia's $150 billion buyback landed — and the AI sector fell anyway. That's the signal worth tradingNvidia closed up 1.68% at $228.86 on 28 September after announcing a $150 billion share repurchase authorisation, the largest single corporate buyback on record, while the rest of the AI complex sold off: AMD -3.6%, Micron -2.6%, Meta -4.8% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index -1.61%. The divergence is not noise. Capital is rotating toward cash-flow certainty, not abandoning the AI theme. With Micron reporting after the close on 30 September, here is what the split means.
Author  Irene Q.
Sep 29, Tue
Nvidia closed up 1.68% at $228.86 on 28 September after announcing a $150 billion share repurchase authorisation, the largest single corporate buyback on record, while the rest of the AI complex sold off: AMD -3.6%, Micron -2.6%, Meta -4.8% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index -1.61%. The divergence is not noise. Capital is rotating toward cash-flow certainty, not abandoning the AI theme. With Micron reporting after the close on 30 September, here is what the split means.
placeholder
【Daily Brief】The dollar ground higher for six days — and the AUD fell 2% in the very week the RBA hiked to a 15-year highThe dollar index held above 101 while the Australian dollar slid to a two-month low of 0.6976, a 2.02% six-session loss, even though the RBA raised rates to 4.60% and Australian CPI printed 4.0%. The yen is the only major currency gaining, ahead of Japan's monthly intervention tally at 7pm JST.
Author  Irene Q.
18 hours ago
The dollar index held above 101 while the Australian dollar slid to a two-month low of 0.6976, a 2.02% six-session loss, even though the RBA raised rates to 4.60% and Australian CPI printed 4.0%. The yen is the only major currency gaining, ahead of Japan's monthly intervention tally at 7pm JST.
placeholder
【Daily Brief】30-year Treasury tops 5.59%, S&P 500 slips to 7,670 and gold holds $4,180 — PCE lands tonightThe 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.59%, its highest since June 2002, and the Dow fell 131.59 points to 51,349.92. US consumer confidence dropped to 81.9, a 12-year low, and JOLTS job openings fell to 7.1 million. August PCE and Q3 GDP both land at 8:30am ET tonight.
Author  Suzie
17 hours ago
The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.59%, its highest since June 2002, and the Dow fell 131.59 points to 51,349.92. US consumer confidence dropped to 81.9, a 12-year low, and JOLTS job openings fell to 7.1 million. August PCE and Q3 GDP both land at 8:30am ET tonight.
goTop
quote