United States Dollar Index (DXY) Price Forecast: Bulls have the upper hand above 99.50

• DXY struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from the vicinity of the weekly low.
• Fed rate hike bets and rising US-Iran tensions limit the downside for the safe-haven USD.
• The bullish technical setup backs the case for the emergence of dip-buyers at lower levels.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, edges lower during the Asian session on Thursday, stalling the overnight bounce from the vicinity of the weekly low. The index, however, remains confined within the weekly range and currently trades near the 100.00 psychological mark, just below its highest level since April 6, set on Monday.

A softer Core US Consumer Price Index (CPI) eased concerns about a runaway inflation spiral, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor undermining demand for the US Dollar (USD). However, a rise in the headline CPI to a three-year high keeps the door open for an interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2026. This, along with renewed hostilities between the US and Iran, continues to act as a tailwind for the safe-haven buck and helps limit further losses.

From a technical perspective, the range bound price action witnessed since the beginning of this week might still be categorized as a bullish consolidation phase against the backdrop of the recent breakout through the 99.50 horizontal barrier. Moreover, the Index is holding well above the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 99.01, which now underpins the broader upturn and backs the case for an extension of a one-month-old uptrend.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 62.29 stays in positive territory without yet signalling overbought conditions. Adding to this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains above the zero line with a mildly positive reading near 0.08, hinting that upside momentum is still constructive but not aggressive. Hence, acceptance above the 100.00 mark is needed to back the case for a further near-term appreciation.

On the downside, immediate support is located near the 99.50 resistance breakpoint, with the 200-period EMA at 99.01 reinforcing a deeper structural floor on pullbacks. As long as the DXY defends this moving average, dips are likely to be treated as corrective rather than the start of a sustained reversal.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

DXY daily chart