Forecasting the upcoming week: US Dollar struggles near 96.80 ahead of PCE, Fed speakers

The US Dollar (USD) lost major ground over the week, briefly gaining some strength after better-than-expected United States (US) jobs data, as the January Nonfarm Payrolls report showed 130K new jobs were added. Also, the Unemployment Rate fell to 4.3% from 4.4%. The US released a softer-than-expected January Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Friday, weighing on the USD.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading near 96.80, declining from 97.15 highs following the release of soft inflation CPI data that fueled bets on a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut later in the year. Next week, the spotlight heads to Friday as the December Personal Consumption Expenditures, the Fed’s favourite inflation gauge, will be released.

EUR/USD is trading near the 1.1880 price zone, trimming all its intraday losses as the Eurozone flash Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was at 1.4% vs the 1.3% expected YoY. On Monday, the pair will oversee the release Eurogroup Meeting and the December Industrial Production. On Tuesday, the EcoFin Meeting and the February Eurozone and German ZEW Surveys.

AUD/USD is nearing the 0.7080 level, trading close to a three-year high after the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) hawkish stance keeps giving fuel to the pair’s rally. On Wednesday, the pair will receive the National Australia Bank's Business Confidence and the Wage Price Index. On Thursday, Australian Job data will be released alongside the February flash S&P Global Composite PMI.

USD/CAD is trading near the 1.3600 price zone, trimming back almost half of its weekly losses following US inflation data. On Friday, the pair will be on the lookout for Canadian December Retail Sales.

USD/JPY is trading near 152.80 amid a strong sell-off after Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s election win raised concerns about potential shifts in the country’s fiscal policy. On Thursday, the National Consumer Price Index will be released.

GBP/USD is trading near the 1.3650 price region, on the green side of the grass. On Wednesday, the January Producer Price Index and Retail Price Index data will be released. On Friday, UK Retail Sales will be released.

Gold is trading near the $5,038 price zone, recovering almost all of Thurdsay’s losses, but still struggling to claw its way back to the record high of $5,598 it touched in January as geopolitical tensions draw investors to riskier positions.

Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon

Saturday, February 14:

• ECB's President Lagarde.

Sunday, February 15:

• ECB's President Lagarde.

Monday, February 16:

• Fed's Bowman.
• ECB’s Nagel.

Tuesday, February 17:

• ECB's Escrivá
• Fed's Barr.
• Fed's Daly.

Wednesday, February 18:

• ECB's Cipollone.
• ECB’s Schnabel.
• Fed’s Bowman.

Thursday, February 19:

• ECB's Cipollone.
• ECB's De Guindos.
• Fed's Bostic.
• Fed's Bowman.
• Fed's Kashkari.
• RBNZ's Breman

Friday, February 20:

• ECB's President Lagarde.
• Fed's Bostic.

Central banks' meetings and upcoming data releases to shape monetary policies

Sunday, February 15:

• Japanese flash Q4 GDP.

Tuesday, February 17:

• RBA Meeting Minutes.
• Germany January Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices.
• January UK Claimant Count Change.
• December UK Employment Change.
• December UK ILO Unemployment Rate.
• Canadian January CPI.

Wednesday, February 18:

• RBNZ Interest Rate Decision.
• January UK CPI.
• US Federal Open Market Committee Minutes.

Thursday, February 19:

• Australian January Employment Change.
• Australian Unemployment Rate.

Friday, February 20:

• UK January Retail Sales.
• Germany February flash HCOB Composite PMIs
• Eurozone PMIs
• UK flash February S&P Global PMIs.
• US December Core Personal Consumption Expenditures.
• February US S&P Global PMIs.