Bitcoin Under Threat? Analyst Explores Two Bearish Black Swan Scenarios to Watch

Source Newsbtc

As Bitcoin (BTC) stabilizes above the critical $80,000 support level after a significant downturn of over 25% from its January peak, market analyst Doctor Profit has released a compelling report that raises a pivotal question: is the market witnessing the onset of a bear market, or is the bullish sentiment still intact?

M2 Money Supply And Bitcoin Price

Doctor Profit emphasizes the crucial role of liquidity in the current market landscape. While many celebrate the increase in the M2 Money Supply—a key economic indicator—there’s a vital need to understand the timing of its effects. 

Historically, M2 has shown a strong correlation with Bitcoin’s price movements. Unlike stock markets, which typically react to M2 expansions after a lag of about six months, Bitcoin tends to respond more rapidly, though not instantaneously.

According to the analyst, the “misconception” that money printing leads to immediate market upswings is addressed, as there are multiple factors at play, including macroeconomic conditions. 

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decisions regarding interest rates are particularly influential. Although official data suggests inflation is declining, underlying realities, such as OPEC’s influence on oil prices, complicate the outlook.

In the context of rising M2, Doctor Profit predicts that Bitcoin’s bullish trend could resume around May or June, but anticipates a period of sideways movement and potential short-term bearish pressure leading up to that point. He warns that many who are currently bullish may shift to a bearish stance as the market evolves.

In the report, Doctor Profit highlights the significance of the weekly EMA50—a critical moving average he refers to as the “Golden Line”—which Bitcoin has respected in recent price action. After bouncing off this line at $76,000, the cryptocurrency reached the anticipated $87.4K, triggering several short positions.

Long-Term Bullish Outlook With Short-Term Caution

Looking ahead, Doctor Profit’s strategy involves targeting a potential drop to the $70,000 to $74,000 zone. This region is crucial; if Bitcoin merely wicks into it but then closes strongly above the Golden Line, he plans to take long positions. 

Bitcoin

Doctor Profit maintains a bullish long-term outlook, expecting a resumption of the bull run by mid-2024, with price targets ranging from $120,000 to $140,000. He remains cautious, holding significant cash reserves and expanding short positions in anticipation of market fluctuations.

Doctor Profit outlines two bearish scenarios that traders should consider: a manageable drop to the $70,000 to $74,000 range and the more severe “Black Swan” event that could push prices down to the $50,000 region. While he is confident in a bounce at the higher target, he advises preparedness for both scenarios.

Bitcoin

At the time of writing, BTC is hovering around $84,000, recording losses of 3.5% and 12% in the fourteen and thirty days time frame respectively. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
Bitcoin Price Annual Forecast: 2025 outlook brightens on expectations of US pro-crypto policyBitcoin (BTC) price has surged more than 140% in 2024, reaching the $100K milestone in early December.
Author  FXStreet
Dec 19, 2024
Bitcoin (BTC) price has surged more than 140% in 2024, reaching the $100K milestone in early December.
placeholder
Bitcoin ETF Inflows For 2025 Now Outpace 2024, Data ShowsUS Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen more inflows this year so far compared to the same point in 2024, according to data.
Author  Bitcoinist
Jul 16, Wed
US Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen more inflows this year so far compared to the same point in 2024, according to data.
placeholder
Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD gains momentum to near $3,650, eyes on US CPI releaseThe Gold price (XAU/USD) gains momentum to near $3,645 during the early Asian session on Thursday.
Author  FXStreet
Sep 11, Thu
The Gold price (XAU/USD) gains momentum to near $3,645 during the early Asian session on Thursday.
placeholder
What to expect from Ethereum in October 2025With broader sentiment worsening, user demand falling across the Ethereum network, and institutional investors pulling back, the coin faces mounting headwinds in October.
Author  Beincrypto
Sep 30, Tue
With broader sentiment worsening, user demand falling across the Ethereum network, and institutional investors pulling back, the coin faces mounting headwinds in October.
placeholder
Copper heads for weekly gain, aided by supply disruptionsCopper prices rose for the third consecutive session on Friday and are set for a weekly gain.
Author  Reuters
Oct 03, Fri
Copper prices rose for the third consecutive session on Friday and are set for a weekly gain.
goTop
quote