Forecasting the upcoming week: The US Dollar fell as ceasefire hopes supported risk sentiment
The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell toward the 98.90 region on Friday as improving market sentiment linked to developments in the Middle East reduces demand for safe-haven assets. Although the latest United States (US) Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Thursday held steady at 3.3% YoY in April, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may keep interest rates elevated for longer, investors focused on reports that the US and Iran reached a memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire by 60 days, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and begin nuclear negotiations.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.14% | -0.18% | 0.02% | 0.05% | -0.35% | -0.94% | -0.47% | |
| EUR | 0.14% | -0.04% | 0.17% | 0.19% | -0.22% | -0.78% | -0.34% | |
| GBP | 0.18% | 0.04% | 0.19% | 0.23% | -0.17% | -0.73% | -0.29% | |
| JPY | -0.02% | -0.17% | -0.19% | 0.05% | -0.36% | -0.96% | -0.49% | |
| CAD | -0.05% | -0.19% | -0.23% | -0.05% | -0.41% | -0.98% | -0.53% | |
| AUD | 0.35% | 0.22% | 0.17% | 0.36% | 0.41% | -0.57% | -0.12% | |
| NZD | 0.94% | 0.78% | 0.73% | 0.96% | 0.98% | 0.57% | 0.46% | |
| CHF | 0.47% | 0.34% | 0.29% | 0.49% | 0.53% | 0.12% | -0.46% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD advances toward the 1.1670 area as broad US Dollar (USD) weakness supports the shared currency.
GBP/USD climbs toward the 1.3470 region, benefiting from softer demand for the Greenback. Sterling remains supported despite lingering concerns surrounding the United Kingdom's (UK) fiscal outlook and slowing economic growth.
USD/JPY trades near the 159.30 zone as the weaker US offsets support from elevated US yields. The Japanese Yen remains pressured after Tokyo Core CPI slowed to 1.4% YoY in May, while Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda warned that energy shocks could become more persistent if they begin influencing wages and inflation expectations.
AUD/USD rises toward the 0.7190 region as improving sentiment surrounding US-Iran negotiations boosts demand for risk-sensitive currencies.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil trades near $88.00 per barrel as hopes for a ceasefire extension and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz ease concerns over supply disruptions.
Gold surges near the $4,550 region as investors balance improving risk appetite against persistent geopolitical uncertainty and elevated global inflation pressures.
Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon
Friday, May 29:
- BoE's Mann
Sunday, May 31:
- UK BoE's Greene
- Fed's Waller
- Fed's Powell
Tuesday, June 2:
- ECB's Vujčić
- BoE Governor Bailey
- ECB's Sleijpen
- BoE's Greene
Wednesday, June 3:
- BoJ Governor Ueda
- ECB's Elderson
- Fed's Barr
- ECB's Cipollone
- BoE Monetary Policy Report Hearings
- Fed Beige Book
Thursday, June 4:
- ECB President Lagarde
- BoE Governor Bailey
Friday, June 5:
- BoE's Dhingra
- BoE Governor Bailey
Central banks' meetings and upcoming data releases to shape
Friday, May 29:
- China Manufacturing PMI
- China Non-Manufacturing PMI
Sunday, May 31:
- AU TD-MI Inflation Gauge
- China Caixin Manufacturing PMI
Monday, June 1:
- Eurozone Retail Sales
- CH Retail Sales
- CH GDP
- Germany Manufacturing PMI
- France Manufacturing PMI
- Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
- Eurozone Unemployment Rate
- CA Manufacturing PMI
- US Manufacturing PMI
- AU Building Permits
Tuesday, June 2:
- Eurozone CPI
- US JOLTS Job Openings
- NZ Building Permits
- AU AiG Industry Index
- AU PMI
- AU Q1 GDP
- China Caixin Services PMI
Wednesday, June 3:
- Spain Services PMI
- Germany PMI
- Eurozone PMI
- Eurozone PPI
- US ADP Employment Change 4-week average
- US PMI
- US Factory Orders
- AU Trade Balance
Thursday, June 4:
- CH CPI
- Eurozone Retail Sales
- US Challenger Job Cuts
- US Initial Jobless Claims
- US Nonfarm Productivity
- US Unit Labor Costs
- JP Labor Cash Earnings
Friday, June 5:
- Eurozone GDP
- Eurozone Employment Change
- CA Employment Report
- CA Average Hourly Wages
- CA Unemployment Rate
- US Nonfarm Payrolls
- US Unemployment Rate
- US Average Hourly Earnings
- US Labor Force Participation Rate
- CA Ivey PMI
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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