Bitcoin Faces 3 Big Tests During the First Week of November

Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto markets face 3 key events this week. US voters elect a new Congress, 3 central banks weigh rate hikes, and Friday brings the October jobs report.

The markets enter the week still recovering. A record $6.3 billion hack at Binance pushed Bitcoin to a six-week low on Friday.

Bitcoin’s $100,000 Hopes Ride on Tuesday’s Ballots

Americans vote on Tuesday, November 3, for all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats.

In a Bloomberg survey of 301 investors, 29% expected Bitcoin above $100,000 by year-end under Republican control. Only 8% expected that if Democrats win.

Under Democratic control, 71% expected Bitcoin to finish 2026 lower, as BeInCrypto reported. However, respondents opted in, and Bloomberg did not weight the results.

Past midterms offer a longer view. Bitcoin rose 25%, 45% and 92% in the year after the 2014, 2018 and 2022 votes, per DWF Labs. Yet it sat 31% and 46% lower 3 months after the 2014 and 2018 votes.

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3 midterms. 3 green years for BTC.+25%, +45%, +92% twelve months after the vote.However, the path wasn’t smooth. In 2014 and 2018, BTC was down 31% and 46% three months in.Year three of a presidential term has historically been the best for stocks: S&P median +18.9%, up 17… https://t.co/ac2N52V1aq pic.twitter.com/nb2Gcq9HKM

— DWF Labs (@DWFLabs) October 30, 2026

Tuesday also brings the first of 3 rate decisions abroad.

Rate Hikes Go Global as 3 Central Banks Meet

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decides on Tuesday. Economists expect the bank to increase the cash rate to 4.85% from 4.60%.

Sweden’s Riksbank follows on Wednesday. Goldman Sachs and ING both expect a quarter-point hike to 2.00%.

The Bank of England (BoE) makes its decision on Thursday. Economists in a Reuters poll expect a hike to 4.0% from 3.75%, its first since August 2023.

Higher energy costs lifted UK inflation to 3.5% in the year to September, above the BoE’s 3.0% forecast.

However, the BoE may resist market bets on 3 to 4 more hikes in 2027.

“While we don’t expect a clear steer from the Committee on how many hikes they’re planning, it’s possible that the meeting minutes or Bailey … signal that Bank Rate is unlikely to reach the level that is priced in by financial markets,” Alexander Harvey, UK economist at Oxford Economics, told Reuters.

These moves would extend last week’s tightening. The Bank of Canada raised rates on October 28, citing high oil prices. That day, the Federal Reserve held, but 2 officials voted for a hike.

Higher rates make cash and bonds more rewarding, which can pull money away from non-yielding assets like Bitcoin.

Friday’s Jobs Report Tops a Busy US Data Week

CME FedWatch shows a 73.8% chance of a Fed hike on December 9. This week’s reports offer the first test of that bet.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases 2 business surveys this week. Forecasts put Monday’s manufacturing index at 54.7, up from September’s 54.5.

Friday’s jobs report carries the most weight. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect 55,000 new jobs, according to CNBC. September added just 29,000, per the BLS, below a 90,000 estimate.

Bitcoin has reacted quickly to payroll surprises. When August payrolls nearly tripled forecasts, Bitcoin fell 1.8% from its pre-release level within minutes.

October inflation data then lands next week on November 10, giving the Fed its next input before December.

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