Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC consolidates below $80,000 as Middle East tensions, tech earnings loom

• Bitcoin trades below $80,000 on Tuesday, failing to close above the 50-day EMA near $80,765 the previous day.
• Spot BTC ETFs recorded modest inflows of $110.34 million on Monday, while Strategy made no BTC purchases last week and Strive added 6,182 BTC.
• QCP Capital identifies upcoming hyperscaler earnings and Middle East developments as key factors likely to drive BTC’s next move.

Bitcoin (BTC) trades below $80,000 at the time of writing on Tuesday, after failing to close above key resistance zone the previous day.

US-listed spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) recorded modest inflows on Monday, while Strategy (MSTR) paused its Bitcoin purchases and Strive (ASST) added 6,182 BTC last week. Meanwhile, QCP Capital highlights that upcoming hyperscaler earnings and developments in the Middle East are likely to shape the Crypto King’s next directional move.

Institutional demand shows mild bullish signs

Institutional demand began the week on a modest positive note. SoSoValue data showed that spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded an inflow of $110.34 million on Monday, after a net inflow of $301.2 million last week, breaking a two-week outflow streak. However, Monday’s inflows were modest and failed to support a recovery; if this inflow trend continues and strengthens through the week, BTC could recover.

Lookonchain posted on its X account on Monday that Strategy didn’t buy any BTC last week, while Strive bought 6,182 BTC. Strategy's pause marks a shift in institutional accumulation, with the company stepping back after several weeks of buying as Strive ramps up its purchases. Strive’s continued accumulation could help cushion selling pressure and provide some support for BTC.

Traders await key catalyst

QCP Capital said in its Monday report that Bitcoin’s next directional move is likely to depend more on upcoming hyperscaler earnings and developments in the Middle East than on the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for October 27–28.

Microsoft and Alphabet are due to report their Q3 earnings on Wednesday, followed by Amazon on Thursday. According to QCP Capital, results that justify continued heavy investment in Artificial Intelligence (AI) could ease concerns over hyperscaler valuations. However, disappointing results could extend the ongoing AI-driven market sell-off.

“Oil is the second driver. The US cut staff at Middle East embassies over the weekend, and US President Donald Trump said a strike on Iran could come as early as Sunday before ruling it out,” added the analyst.

QCP Capital outlined three potential scenarios for Bitcoin this week. Firstly, the base case is that the Federal Reserve (Fed) holds rates and BTC ranges between $78,000 and $86,000.

Second, the bull case is that results ease AI capex fears and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh softens the December signal, pulling yields lower. BTC would then reclaim the $80,000-$81,500 cost-basis band and push toward $86,000, then $88,000-$90,000. 

Lastly, the bear case is a surprise hike or a press conference that locks in December, combined with Middle East escalation. These developments would send 10-year US Treasury yields back above 5% and take BTC through $78,000.

Bitcoin technical outlook: Weakening momentum indicators

Bitcoin price trades at $79,918 on Tuesday, holding above the 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at $77,727 and $76,338, which underpin a medium-term constructive tone. However, it remains capped by the 50-day EMA at $80,765, keeping the near-term bias neutral to slightly bearish while price consolidates just beneath this dynamic barrier.

Momentum indicators lean soft, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around 41 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) below zero, suggesting waning bullish pressure as buyers struggle to extend the prior advance.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 50-day EMA near $80,765, and a daily close above this level would open the way toward the horizontal barrier at $85,000, where previous supply is likely to re-emerge.

On the downside, initial support appears at the 100-day EMA at $77,727, followed by a deeper structural floor at the 200-day EMA around $76,338, and a break below this latter level would significantly weaken the broader trend and expose BTC to a more pronounced corrective phase.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)