Bitcoin’s Next Move Depends on the US Bond Market and Inflation Report

Bitcoin’s next major move could depend on the US bond market. Treasury yields surged to their highest level in 24 years, making government bonds more attractive to investors and putting fresh pressure on cryptocurrencies.

According to Bitunix’s October market analysis, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield climbed above 5.35%. Bitcoin fell below $82,000, while selling spread across the wider crypto market.

The exchange warns that continued pressure from high bond yields could make a sustained crypto recovery difficult.

Why Rising US Bond Yields Threaten Bitcoin

US Treasury bonds offer investors regular interest payments backed by the government. When their yields rise, investors can earn higher returns without taking the same risks associated with cryptocurrencies.

US LONG-TERM TREASURY YIELDS HIT A 24-YEAR HIGHThe 10-year yield briefly climbed to 5.35%, while the 30-year yield reached around 5.7% – levels not seen since 2002The latest ISM services report added fresh pressure to the bond market, with the prices index rising to 74, its… pic.twitter.com/VHkzllH8dE

— BeInCrypto (@beincrypto) October 5, 2026

Bitcoin pays no fixed interest. As a result, higher Treasury yields can encourage investors to move capital into government bonds or hold cash.

Bitunix argues that this shift in investor preferences is creating additional pressure on Bitcoin and other speculative assets.

The risk extends beyond crypto. Higher yields also increase borrowing costs and can reduce the appeal of technology stocks. Bitunix reported weekly declines in crypto-linked equities, including Strategy and Circle.

However, the direction of bond yields remains critical. A sustained decline could improve investor appetite for risk and help Bitcoin recover.

Crypto Market Weakness Goes Beyond Bitcoin

The broader crypto market suffered even heavier losses during October 3–9.

Bitcoin declined 3.80%, while Ethereum lost 8.39% and XRP fell 7.09%.

More importantly, only around 20% of the top 300 cryptocurrencies tracked by Bitunix recorded gains. Their median weekly return was -5.18%.

Decentralized finance tokens also struggled. Uniswap’s UNI declined 18.37%, while PancakeSwap’s CAKE lost 15.92%.

Yet speculative trading continues.

The Sandbox’s SAND rallied 57.71%, even as Bitunix found little evidence of improving project fundamentals. The exchange attributed the move primarily to trading sentiment and capital flows, although it could not establish the precise drivers.

Meanwhile, commodities followed a different path. Gold returned to $4,200, while Brent crude climbed above $100 per barrel.

October 14 Inflation Report Could Decide Bitcoin’s Direction

The next major test comes on October 14, when the US releases September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Bitunix cites an expected annual inflation rate of 3.6%, up from the previous 3.4%.

Higher-than-expected inflation could strengthen expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates elevated. Treasury yields could rise further, creating additional selling pressure on Bitcoin and other risk assets.

Conversely, softer inflation could ease pressure on bond yields and support a crypto recovery.

For traders, the key signal will be how Treasury yields react to the CPI data.

Bitunix’s central warning is that Bitcoin could remain vulnerable to further losses while US government bonds continue offering unusually attractive returns.