Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC retreats as macro headwinds grow

• Bitcoin fell over 4% this week, trading around $76,900 on Friday after failing to close above the 50-week SMA near $79,700.
• US-listed spot ETFs are on track to snap a three-week inflow streak, recording $449.44 million in net outflows through Thursday.
• Hotter US PPI strengthens expectations for a September rate hike, but the final clue belongs to Friday's US CPI report.

Bitcoin (BTC) remains under pressure, down over 4% this week and trading around $76,900 at the time of writing on Friday. Institutional demand shows signs of weakness as spot BTC Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) are on track to end their three-week inflow streak, recording nearly $500 million in net outflows through Thursday. Meanwhile, hotter-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) data has strengthened expectations for a September rate hike, further capping BTC.

Traders are now focused on Friday's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for further clues on the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy path, which could shape the near-term direction for the Crypto King.

Institutional demand cools down

Institutional demand for Bitcoin shows early signs of weakness so far this week. SoSoValue data showed spot ETFs are on track to snap a three-week inflow streak, recording $449.44 million in net outflows through Thursday. If these withdrawals continue and intensify on Friday, BTC could see further correction.

All eyes on US CPI data

On the macroeconomic side, the US inflation figures continue to weigh on Bitcoin. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Thursday that the headline PPI accelerated to 5.4% YoY in August, up from the previous month's upwardly revised 4.8% and estimates of 5.3%. 

Stripping out food and energy, the core gauge matched forecasts and rose 4.6% YoY from 4.3% in July. This comes amid inflation risks from elevated energy prices and reaffirms expectations that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs next week.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool chart below, the probability of a rate hike at the upcoming September 15-16 meeting surges to nearly 70% from 60% last week.

Market participants await the US CPI data release on Friday. If figures come in strong, the print could push the US Dollar (USD) higher, which could further weigh on Bitcoin.

Fresh Middle East tensions fuel oil and cap BTC

Escalating tensions between the US and Iran near the Strait of Hormuz continue to lift energy prices, dampen risk appetite and weigh on the Crypto King.

Iran said that it has attacked 10 ships around the Strait of Hormuz after the US announced it had sunk five Iranian oil tankers. Moreover, Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen seized the crucial Red Sea city of Mocha, expanding control over the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait and adding to growing market concerns about a prolonged disruption to oil supplies.

The US President Donald Trump said that the war with Iran will likely continue until after the November US midterm elections. 

These developments have shot crude oil prices to the highest level since May 21, keeping the geopolitical risk premium elevated and increasing pressure on BTC.

Bitcoin technical outlook: Fails to close above 50-week SMA

The Crypto King faced rejection from the 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $79,668 this week, correcting over 4% and trading at $76,943 at the time of writing on Friday.

If BTC continues its correction and the 50-day SMA at $79,668 holds as resistance, the Crypto King could extend the decline toward the key psychological level of $70,000.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly chart around 55 shows mildly positive momentum without reaching overbought conditions. At the same time, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains firmly in positive territory, hinting that upside pressure persists despite nearby resistance.

On the other hand, if BTC recovers and closes above the 50-week SMA at $79,668 on a weekly basis, it could extend the rally toward the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $87,599 (drawn from the August 2024 low of $49,000 to the October 2025 record high of $126,199), followed by the 100-week SMA at $89,312.

On the daily chart, BTC holds a constructive bullish bias as it remains firmly above the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), clustered between roughly $70,800 and $72,900. This configuration suggests the broader uptrend is intact despite the recent pullback.

The RSI at about 54 has eased out of overbought territory and now signals neutral-to-positive momentum. At the same time, the MACD stays below zero, suggesting upside impetus is moderating but not yet reversing the prevailing bullish structure.

On the topside, initial resistance sits at the horizontal barrier near $85,000, capping the immediate bullish extension unless buyers can secure a clear daily close above it.

On the downside, first demand appears around the EMAs cluster, with the 200-day EMA near $72,866 and the 50-day EMA near $72,871 providing layered dynamic support, followed by the 100-day EMA around $70,822. Below that, horizontal supports sit at $66,500 and then $62,300, levels that would likely attract dip-buying interest if a deeper correction unfolds.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)