Goldman Strategist Holds 12,000 KOSPI Target: Will Memory Earnings Close a 74% Gap?

South Korea’s KOSPI index would need to climb roughly 74% to reach the level Goldman Sachs strategist Timothy Moe still expects. He is holding a 12,000 target set before the index lost a quarter of its value.

Moe, the bank’s chief Asia Pacific equity strategist, published the call three months ago and has not revised it. What has changed is the price, not his forecast.

Why the KOSPI Rally Turned Violent

The index still trades near 6,899, up roughly 60% in 2026, even after slipping about 24% from its June record close.

Its two heavyweights have done most of the lifting. SK Hynix has gained about 157% year to date, while Samsung Electronics has more than doubled, up 106%.

The path there has been anything but smooth. July delivered the sharpest reversal, when a leveraged ETF unwind hit Korean retail investors hard.

Leveraged funds tracking the two chipmakers then posted their first monthly outflow in August, shedding close to $1 billion. Swings got wide enough that Bitcoin (BTC) spent stretches of 2026 calmer than the KOSPI. 

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Goldman KOSPI Target: Why 12,000 Is Still on the Table

Still, Moe’s case rests on earnings. He expects KOSPI members to deliver earnings growth near 360% this year, cooling to roughly 35% in 2027.

“We’re still holding to it — it’s driven by what we think will be earnings delivery..The market is underpricing the duration of this earning cycle,” he said.

Valuation does much of the remaining work. His 12,000 target assumes 7.5 times forward earnings. The index currently fetches 5.3 times, about half its seven-year average.

Demand supplies the rest. Moe estimates US Big Tech spending will top $1.2 trillion next year, far above earlier projections near $800 billion.

Risks cut the other way, too. He flags Chinese rival ChangXin Memory Technologies, known as CXMT, as well as potential political resistance to new data centers in the United States.

Delivery remains the sticking point. Samsung and SK Hynix have posted strong quarters this year with little market reward, so the next results will test whether earnings alone can close a 74% gap.

Moe is not the only strategist leaning into the dip. Morgan Stanley lifted Korea to overweight in early August, with a target of 9,000.

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