Bitcoin $50,000 Crash Odds Hit 65% on Polymarket Amid Sharp Selloff
Polymarket traders now assign a 65% probability that Bitcoin (BTC) drops to $50,000 this year, after a hot inflation reading sent the token to its lowest level since September 2024.
The odds for lower targets have risen recently, signaling that traders now see a deeper drop as likely.
Hot Inflation Triggers the Selloff
Bitcoin slid to about $58,100 on Thursday, its lowest level since September 2024. The move tracked a hotter-than-expected inflation print.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 4.1% year over year in May 2026.
The core gauge, which excludes food and energy, reached 3.4%. The figure further dented the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates.
The repricing flushed out leveraged positions across exchanges. More than $1.26 billion in crypto positions were liquidated across 209,000 traders.
Follow us on X to get the latest news as it happens
Polymarket Odds Turn Sharply Bearish on Bitcoin
Meanwhile, trader sentiment also shifted. On Polymarket, the probability that Bitcoin falls to $50,000 this year rose to 65%. The nearer $55,000 target carried an even higher conviction at 77%.
Polymarket Odds for Bitcoin Price. Source: Polymarket
Both levels sit well below Friday’s price near $59,900. That gap shows traders now treat a deeper slide as the base case, not a tail risk.
The bearish tilt dominates the market. The sharpest recent move came on the $55,000 line, which jumped about 20 points.
Still, the board is not one-sided. The odds of Bitcoin reclaiming $70,000 this year have risen to 60%, a sign some traders expect a rebound once the selling clears.
Meanwhile, some experts target an even lower range. Arthur Hayes sees a $40,000 bottom within six months. Chinese miner Jiang Zhuoer lands close, pegging the floor at $42,000 to $44,000 in late 2026.
Whether $58,000 marks a floor may hinge on the Fed’s July meeting. With inflation rising, the case for cuts looks thin.
Subscribe to our YouTube channel to watch leaders and journalists provide expert insights
Recommended Articles
