JPMorgan: Iran's oil output will be cut in half if Kharg Island falls to U.S.–Israeli forces

Iran could lose half its oil output and see most of its crude exports stop if Kharg Island is seized by U.S. and Israeli forces, JPMorgan said in a note on Monday.

The largest US bank said that kind of attack would hit the core of Iran’s oil trade. Kharg Island sits about 30 kilometers off Iran’s coast in the Gulf and handles about 90% of the country’s crude exports.

Earlier on in the beginning of US and Israel’s war in Iran, Cryptopolitan had reported that the Trump administration was discussing taking control of the island.

That threat matters because Iran is the third-largest producer in OPEC and pumps a meaningful share of the world’s oil.

Trump hardens threats as oil traders track Kharg and Hormuz

Iran produces about 3.3 million barrels of crude a day. It also produces another 1.3 million barrels a day of condensate and other liquids. Together, that puts Iran at about 4.5% of global oil supply. JPMorgan said:-

“A direct strike would immediately halt the bulk of Iran’s crude exports, likely triggering severe retaliation in the Strait of Hormuz or against regional energy infrastructure.”

JPMorgan also pointed to older wars to explain why Kharg Island matters so much, saying that during the 1979 Iran hostage crisis, America’s president Jimmy Carter imposed sanctions on Iran but did not order strikes on the island.

Then later during the 1980s Iran-Iraq Tanker War, president Ronald Reagan focused on protecting shipping and hitting Iranian vessels and missile batteries, so yeah, Kharg was left alone then too.

JPMorgan said:-

“Although Iraqi forces struck some terminals and tankers during the eight-year war, Kharg remained largely operational and damage was typically repaired quickly, demonstrating that disabling it would require sustained, large-scale attacks.”

Meanwhile, as the war rages on, Donald Trump has vowed that it is not close to ending. When asked if the war could be over this week, Trump said “no,” though he added that it would end “soon.” He also warned that if Iran tries to block oil supply, it will be hit “much, much harder.” Speaking about the energy sector, Trump said he would “take out those targets” quickly.

Trump went further with another threat. “They’ll never be able to recover ever,” he said. “We will hit them so hard that it will not be possible for them or anybody else helping them to ever recover that section of the world if they do anything.” In an interview with CBS News, Trump said he has “no message” for Iran’s new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei.

Mojtaba became Iran’s leader over the weekend after his father was killed early in the campaign. Asked again about Mojtaba, Trump said, “I have no message for him. None, whatsoever.”

Trump also said he has someone in mind to replace Khamenei, but did not explain. Meanwhile, WTI crude fell below $88 a barrel after earlier rising above $119.

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