Citigroup Gold Bearish Warning: The $3,000 Support Line May Be Breached! Gold Bull Coming to an End?

TradingKey - A recent gold price forecast report from Citigroup has drawn market attention. In a report released on June 17, the firm pointed out that due to multiple factors, gold prices may gradually decline over the next few quarters, with a 60% probability that prices will fall below $3,000 per ounce under baseline scenarios.

The report analysis indicates that in the short term (by Q3 2025), gold prices may consolidate above $3,000. In the long term, by the second half of 2026, prices could further decline to a range of $2,500 to $2,700.

Citigroup believes that eased expectations regarding policy risks associated with the upcoming U.S. midterm elections and the continuation of the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle have diminished gold's value as a hedge against policy uncertainty. At the same time, improving growth prospects for major global economies — particularly a slowing growth rate in physical demand from Asian markets — have weakened gold's safe-haven appeal.

It is worth noting that Citigroup's previous optimistic outlook for gold starkly contrasts with its current predictions. In May 2024, Citigroup had forecasted that gold would rise to $3,000 over the next 12 months, primarily based on expectations of Fed rate cuts and surging physical demand from Asia (with Citigroup’s target being 172% above then-current prices).

In February 2025, Citigroup revised its target to expect a breach of $3,000 within three months due to factors including geopolitical tensions and de-dollarization trends (with related trading volume accounting for 19% at that time). Analysts note that this shift in Citigroup's stance reflects a re-assessment of driving factors behind gold.

Currently, there is confusion in the market regarding Citigroup's outlook on gold compared to other Wall Street institutions; some firms argue that unpredictable geopolitical risks may provide support for gold prices.

So far, most institutions on Wall Street remain bullish on gold. Goldman Sachs analysts previously projected that gold prices would rebound to 3,700 per ounce by year-end and reach 4,000 per ounce by mid-2026. UBS and Bank of America have also set higher price targets.

As of this writing, spot gold is priced at approximately $3,384 per ounce, leaving about a 10% downside potential relative to Citigroup's short-term target.