Gold Price Outlook: A Temporary Peak?

coverImg
Source: DepositPhotos

After falling more than 1% on Monday, ending a three-day winning streak, gold prices continued their downward trend on Tuesday.

17501500621771

On Tuesday, U.S. President Trump and British Prime Minister Starmer signed the U.S.-UK trade agreement at the G7 summit. As the United States and China, and the United Kingdom have successively signed preliminary agreements, tensions in trade disputes are fading, which has become an important factor in the decline in gold prices.

However, the conflict between Iran and Israel has attracted some buyers to the safe-haven precious metal. Currently, gold prices are consolidating around $3,400 amid the uncertainty in the Middle East.

So, in the medium and long term, is the price of gold bullish or bearish?

In their latest report, Citi analysts led by Max Layton expressed their view that gold prices may have peaked and are expected to fall back in the third quarter of 2025.

Citi elaborated on several possible scenarios in its report.

Citi's base case scenario (60% probability) predicts consolidation in the $3,100-$3,500 per troy ounce range next quarter, followed by a further decline by the end of the year and into 2026. It will fall to $2,500-2,700 by the end of 2026.

Citi believes that a variety of factors are weighing on gold bulls. These factors include weakening investment demand, improved global economic growth prospects, and the Federal Reserve's rate cuts to shift monetary policy to neutral, which could lead to a decline in gold prices.

Analysts believe that investment demand for gold will weaken in late 2025 and 2026 as Trump's popularity rises and the "put option" on US economic growth starts to take effect, especially as the US midterm elections come into focus. Further, "we see a lot of scope for the Fed to cut from restrictive policy to neutral," they added.

Citi's bullish scenario shows gold prices hitting new highs in the third quarter of 2025, driven by tariffs, geopolitics, and stagflation concerns. Conversely, in its bearish scenario, Citigroup expects gold prices to see a sell-off, likely triggered by a swift tariff resolution. Citigroup noted that both the bullish and bearish scenarios have a 20% probability of occurring.

17501500882130

Read more

  • Gold stalls Friday's pullback from record peak on trade tensions, Fed rate cut bets
  • Pound Sterling weakens against US Dollar ahead of US Manufacturing PMI data
  • Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD stabilizes above $52 after healthy correction
  • EUR/USD moves above 1.1700 as France’s government survives a no-confidence vote
  • Japanese Yen hangs near one-month low against USD
  • Australian Dollar remains stronger following Westpac Consumer Confidence
  • Note: If you want to share the article 《Gold Price Outlook: A Temporary Peak?》, make sure you retain the original link. For more information, please visit Insights or browse www.mitrade.com.


    Before making any trading decisions, it is important to equip yourself with sufficient fundamental knowledge, have a comprehensive understanding of market trends, be aware of risks and hidden costs, carefully consider investment targets, level of experience, risk appetite, and seek professional advice if necessary.


    Furthermore, the content of this article is solely the author's personal opinion and does not necessarily constitute investment advice. The content of this article is for reference purposes only, and readers should not use this article as a basis for any investment decisions.


    Investors should not rely on this information as a substitute for independent judgment or make decisions solely based on this information. It does not constitute any trading activity and does not guarantee any profits in trading.


    If you have any inquiries regarding the data, information, or content related to Mitrade in this article, please contact us via email: insights@mitrade.com. The Mitrade team will carefully review the content to continue improving the quality of the article.



    goTop
    quote
    Related Articles
    placeholder
    Gold softens amid modest USD strength; downside potential seems limitedGold (XAU/USD) eases from the vicinity of the record high during the Asian session on Tuesday, though any meaningful slide still seems elusive amid a supportive fundamental backdrop.
    Author  FXStreet
    16 hours ago
    Gold (XAU/USD) eases from the vicinity of the record high during the Asian session on Tuesday, though any meaningful slide still seems elusive amid a supportive fundamental backdrop.
    placeholder
    "No Kings" Protests: If It Persists, Sell U.S. Stocks and Buy Gold1. IntroductionTradingKey - On the morning of Saturday, 18 October, large-scale demonstrations broke out in multiple U.S. cities, where people protested against Trump's policies. Rallies were held in
    Author  TradingKey
    18 hours ago
    1. IntroductionTradingKey - On the morning of Saturday, 18 October, large-scale demonstrations broke out in multiple U.S. cities, where people protested against Trump's policies. Rallies were held in
    placeholder
    Gold climbs to near fresh record high above $4,350 amid broader uncertaintyGold price (XAU/USD) holds positive ground around $4,370 after reaching a fresh record high near $4,380 during the early Asian session on Tuesday.
    Author  FXStreet
    21 hours ago
    Gold price (XAU/USD) holds positive ground around $4,370 after reaching a fresh record high near $4,380 during the early Asian session on Tuesday.
    placeholder
    Gold stalls Friday's pullback from record peak on trade tensions, Fed rate cut betsGold (XAU/USD) edges higher at the start of a new week and, for now, seems to have stalled its sharp retracement slide from the all-time peak, touched on Friday.
    Author  FXStreet
    Yesterday 05: 47
    Gold (XAU/USD) edges higher at the start of a new week and, for now, seems to have stalled its sharp retracement slide from the all-time peak, touched on Friday.
    placeholder
    Gold-backed PAXG hits record volumes, trades at premium to spotPAXG traded at a premium on Binance, based on an anomalous price spike above $5,000, which liquidated short positions.
    Author  Cryptopolitan
    Oct 17, Fri
    PAXG traded at a premium on Binance, based on an anomalous price spike above $5,000, which liquidated short positions.
    Live Quotes
    Name / SymbolChart% Change / Price
    XAUUSD
    XAUUSD
    0.00%0.00

    Gold Related Articles

    • What Is Platinum? Is the Platinum Price Higher Than The Gold Price?
    • Gold price forecast 2024/2025/2026: How to analyze the gold price trend?
    • Types of gold: How to build a gold investment plan
    • Where to invest money in 2024? Best companies to invest in the Philippines
    • How To Invest In Gold - 5 Best Ways To Invest In Gold For Beginners

    Click to view more