XRP ETF approval chances soar to 83% despite SEC Roadblocks

Investor optimism surrounding an XRP Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) is reaching new heights, with analysts now placing the probability of approval at 83% despite ongoing regulatory hurdles posed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). 

That growth has come despite James Seyffart’s speculation that the SEC’s early decisions would be an action that’s out of the norm.

Seyffart anticipates that October is when decisions would likely be made. In addition, the ETF community pointed out that such delays were typical in the review process.

Following XRP ETF approval odds rising, asset managers, including Bitwise, CoinShares, Franklin Templeton, and Grayscale, await what the SEC will do with their applications.

XRP ETF approval surges to 83% amid growing institutional investors’ interest

The prediction market platform Polymarket shows a strong expectation boost for an XRP spot ETF approval.

Following this, Ripple’s CEO, Brad Garlinghouse, spoke about the subject in the latest episode of the company’s podcast, Crypto in One Minute. He called ETFs a way for institutional investors to enter the cryptocurrency market easily.

Garlinghouse highlighted that earlier, Wall Street and other institutional investors had struggled to access the crypto markets directly. However, according to him, that has changed as ETFs enable them to access the market through regulated financial products in place of crypto exchanges or self-custody wallets.

He also noted the rapid expansion of Bitcoin ETFs. Based on his argument, the Bitcoin ETF was the quickest to reach $1 billion in assets. He stated that it reached $10 billion faster than any other ETF and believes institutional interest will continue to drive additional product launches, including those pegged to XRP.

Notably, despite the US SEC having postponed decisions on spot ETFs, the market experienced an important change late last week. Volatility Shares introduced the first-ever XRP futures ETF on the Nasdaq exchange, using the ticker XRPI. This came after the launch of an XRP futures product on CME Group’s platform on May 19. 

XRP futures now allow investors to trade contracts based on the expected future price of the asset in a regulated setting. While similar products have been available for Bitcoin and Ethereum for a long time, XRP just recently joined the list. 

Additionally, Tectrium launched its 2x Long Daily XRP ETF, which was leveraged to provide even more choices for those interested in trading XRP-related instruments. These new offerings demonstrate a rising interest in XRP from institutional traders, which is also seen in the increasing chances of XRP ETF approvals. 

James Seyffart anticipates that Litecoin has a higher likelihood of getting approved first

On May 21, Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart shared his speculations that the SEC was more likely to approve a Litecoin ETF before any other cryptocurrency funding applications under review. 

His speculation came after the SEC postponed its decision on Bitwise’s request to include staking in its Ether ETF and Grayscale’s application for an XRP ETF, which analysts had anticipated. 

Based on the SEC’s explanation for the delay, the commission announced on May 20 that it needed an extra 45 days to decide on Bitwise’s request to consider the proposed rule change and the issues raised. The agency had to either make a decision or delay it further by May 22. 

Furthermore, the SEC postponed its decision on Grayscale’s XRP tracking ETF and Bitwise’s Solana tracking fund while it collected public comments and started proceedings for further analysis of these proposals to ensure they met regulatory requirements. 

James Seyffart mentioned on X that these delays were expected because the SEC usually takes the full time to respond to a 19b-4 filing. According to Seyffart, almost all of these filings have final due dates in October, and an early decision would be out of the norm. He added, “No matter how Crypto-friendly this SEC is. There’s no conspiracy here.” 

Seyffart also revealed that delays on other spot crypto ETF bids were expected, and the SEC was likely to delay deciding on Litecoin ETFs, too. 

However, despite all this, his stand that Litecoin had a higher likelihood of getting approved first compared to others still remains.