US: Section 899 may be weakened in the near future – Commerzbank

Last night, Republican senators presented their version of the 'Big Beautiful Bill', which includes a number of changes. The proposed changes to Section 899 are likely to be particularly relevant for the US Dollar (USD), Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes.

Changing the Section 899 may not solve the fundamental problem

"The House of Representatives proposed introducing a higher tax rate for companies from countries whose tax policies the US administration deems discriminatory, often referred to as a 'retaliatory tax'. This tax rate was to increase to 20% within four years. However, the Senate proposal now provides for a cap of 15%, postponing its introduction until 2027. The rate will continue to rise by 5 percentage points each year, which may allow room for negotiation during this period."

"This is certainly a step in the right direction for international investors concerned about suddenly having to pay higher taxes on their US investments. However, the proposal does not solve the fundamental problem. The US administration is rather one-sided in determining which international taxes it considers discriminatory. A frequently cited example is the value added tax, which the US administration strongly criticises."

"This is set at federal state level in the US, a fact that the US government always seems to overlook. This means that the US does indeed levy a value-added tax, just not at the highest level. Therefore, demanding a higher tax rate to compensate for this does not necessarily make sense. Whether the tax rate is 20% or 15% is not that important. The general uncertainty associated with Section 899 is likely to be more decisive. Unfortunately, the Republicans' Senate proposal does not address this issue."