Gold within striking distance of all-time high, but temporary price slide remains mysterious – Commerzbank

Gold is approaching its all-time high of mid-July again, Commerzbank’s commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

New record high is therefore only a matter of time

“The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and speculation about upcoming interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve are providing a tailwind, even though these have recently been scaled back somewhat. According to Fed Funds Futures, however, a rate cut of 50 basis points in September is still priced in at around 50%. The US inflation data due tomorrow may raise expectations again, which could give the Gold price a further tailwind.”

“A new record high is therefore only a matter of time. The backdrop to the price slide a week ago, however, remains unclear. The CFTC data published on Friday did not show the expected strong reduction in speculative (net) long positions in the week ending August 6. ETFs do not serve as an explanation either.”

“Bloomberg shows considerable outflows from one ETF provider in the middle of last week, when the price was already rising again. It is therefore impossible to say where the selling pressure came from that caused the Gold price to fall to $2,365 in the meantime. This may have happened via OTC transactions.”