Oil: Geopolitical risk lifts prices – ING

Source Fxstreet

ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that Brent has jumped above $76/bbl as renewed tensions in the Persian Gulf and US strikes on Iran revive supply concerns. The United States (US) has revoked a temporary licence for Iranian oil sales, while tight US inventories and damage to Russian refineries are supporting product cracks and middle‑distillate markets.

Brent rallies on renewed Gulf tensions

"Oil prices spiked following Iranian attacks on three ships in the Strait of Hormuz, including an LNG carrier and an oil tanker. ICE Brent settled a little more than 3% higher yesterday, and in early trading this morning it's up another 2.8%, leaving it trading above $76/bbl. The curve structure also strengthened, with the front end returning to backwardation after recently flipping into contango amid the ramp-up of Persian Gulf supply."

"In addition to military strikes, the US revoked a temporary licence that it had previously issued to allow for the sale of Iranian oil. While the revocation doesn’t fundamentally change oil market dynamics, it’s important from a sentiment perspective. It heightens the risk of a breakdown in the temporary deal between the US and Iran."

"The API reported overnight that US crude oil inventories fell by 400k barrels over the last week. Stocks at the WTI delivery hub, Cushing, fell by just 100k barrels. Inventory draws on the refined product side were more significant, with gasoline and distillate stocks falling by 2.9m barrels and 1.8m barrels, respectively."

"Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries have intensified, adding fresh support to middle‑distillate markets. The sustained damage is now dragging down diesel exports, further tightening the refined-product balance. This comes at a time when the market is still awaiting a normalisation in refined product flows from the Middle East."

"As a result, the ICE gasoil crack has strengthened, trading back above US$50/bbl. The latest re-escalation in the Middle East will only provide further support."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
Bitcoin CME gaps at $35,000, $27,000 and $21,000, which one gets filled first?Prioritize filling the $27,000 gap and even try higher.
Author  FXStreet
Aug 22, 2023
Prioritize filling the $27,000 gap and even try higher.
placeholder
Pinduoduo Earnings Incoming: Morgan Stanley Sees Long-Term Profit Potential​Insights – On November 21, Chinese e-commerce giant Pinduoduo (PDD) will release its Q3 2024 earnings.
Author  Mitrade
Nov 20, 2024
​Insights – On November 21, Chinese e-commerce giant Pinduoduo (PDD) will release its Q3 2024 earnings.
placeholder
Elon Musk’s xAI and Neuralink Launch New Funding Rounds​Billionaire Elon Musk recently raised funds for his two high-profile tech companies, xAI and Neuralink.
Author  Insights
Jun 03, 2025
​Billionaire Elon Musk recently raised funds for his two high-profile tech companies, xAI and Neuralink.
placeholder
Bitcoin briefly loses 2025 gains as crypto plunges over the weekend.Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline this weekend, briefly erasing its 2025 gains and dipping below its year-opening value of $93,507. The cryptocurrency fell to a low of $93,029 on Sunday, representing a 25% drop from its all-time high in October. Although it has rebounded slightly to around $94,209, the pressures on the market remain significant. The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year. Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus. Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses. Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
Author  Mitrade
Nov 17, 2025
Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline this weekend, briefly erasing its 2025 gains and dipping below its year-opening value of $93,507. The cryptocurrency fell to a low of $93,029 on Sunday, representing a 25% drop from its all-time high in October. Although it has rebounded slightly to around $94,209, the pressures on the market remain significant. The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year. Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus. Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses. Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
placeholder
Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rally stalls, sellers eye $60.00Silver price retreats by over 1% on Monday, even as the Greenback and US Treasury yields edge lower, with the white metal threatening to drop below $60 for the first time this week. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD trades at $61.80, after peaking at around $63.28 earlier during the day,
Author  FXStreet
Yesterday 01: 14
Silver price retreats by over 1% on Monday, even as the Greenback and US Treasury yields edge lower, with the white metal threatening to drop below $60 for the first time this week. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD trades at $61.80, after peaking at around $63.28 earlier during the day,
Related Instrument
goTop
quote