International Copper Prices Rise for 7 Straight Months; Will Bull Market Continue in 2026?

TradingKey - As the "King of Industrial Metals," international copper prices Every fluctuation rattles the nerves of global investors. At the beginning of 2026, international copper prices continued to rise, extending the upward trend from 2025 and hitting new highs above $14,500, marking seven consecutive months of gains. Meanwhile, London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices have climbed steadily from $7,800 per ton in July 2025 to over $9,000 per ton today.

How will factors such as global economic trends, the explosion of the AI industry, and inventory changes impact copper price movements in 2026? Can this rally, which has lasted nearly a year, be sustained? Will international copper prices continue their bull market pattern in 2026?

International copper prices have risen for seven consecutive months; will they continue to strengthen in 2026?

In 2026, major global economies completed the final inventory cycle bottoming out of the post-pandemic era. As the Federal Reserve monetary policy shifts toward a stable and slightly accommodative stance, the periodic weakness of the U.S. Dollar Index provides natural upward momentum for dollar-denominated copper.

With the advancement of global carbon neutrality goals, copper—as an inexpensive metal with conductivity second only to silver—has seen its irreplacability in wind power, photovoltaics, and energy storage infinitely magnified. In 2026, as the first batch of large-scale retired new energy batteries requires recycling and new power grid infrastructure breaks ground, the market has suddenly realized: without copper, there is no green future.

Looking ahead to 2026, the trajectory of copper prices will not be a "smooth ride" but rather a pattern of "long-term bullishness, short-term volatility."

From a bullish perspective, the Federal Reserve's rate-cut cycle is likely to continue, AI and the sustained release of demand from new energy, along with an widening global supply-demand gap, will support the strengthening of copper prices in the medium to long term.

However, the current significant accumulation of global copper inventories, the pressure for a correction due to short-term overbought conditions, and increased geopolitical uncertainty may lead to periodic fluctuations in copper prices during the year.

Will the development of AI technology increase the demand for copper?

In the global economy of 2026, the explosive development of the AI industry is undoubtedly one of the most watched highlights. For copper prices, the development of AI is not "insignificant" but will become a "new engine" driving copper demand—many people may not know that AI servers , data centers cannot operate without a significant amount of copper support.

With its excellent electrical and thermal conductivity, copper is a core material for electronic equipment and power transmission systems, and the expansion of the AI industry will significantly boost demand for it.

Currently, AI is gradually penetrating various fields such as industry, healthcare, finance, and transportation, computing power demand will continue to explode, and the construction of corresponding servers and data centers will continue to advance. This means that the incremental copper demand brought by AI will be released continuously over the next three to five years.

Although the incremental demand for copper brought by AI is growing rapidly, its share of total global copper demand remains relatively low at present, making it difficult to fully dominate copper price trends in the short term. However, in the medium to long term, it will become an important "structural force" supporting the strengthening of copper prices, forming a "dual-engine" pattern with new energy demand.

Abundant global copper inventories may exert pressure on copper prices

Inventory levels are a barometer for prices. At the beginning of 2026, the total copper inventories of the world's three major exchanges ( LME , COMEX , SHFE) had dropped to historical lows, with some regions able to sustain less than three days of consumption.

According to the latest data, as of February 10, 2026, the total copper inventories of the world's three major exchanges (LME, COMEX, SHFE) were approximately 968,600 tons, a high level for the past year. Among them: LME copper inventories were 184,300 tons, a nine-month high; SHFE copper inventories were 248,911 tons, a ten-month high; and COMEX copper inventories were 590,211 short tons, hitting another record high.

The current high global copper inventories have a clear "short-term inhibitory effect" on copper prices, which may lead to a volatile pattern in the first quarter of 2026. However, from a medium- to long-term perspective, with the divergence of inventory structures and the arrival of peak demand seasons, inventory pressure will gradually ease and will not become a core factor hindering the medium- to long-term strength of copper prices.

How international investment banks predict international copper price trends in 2026

Citigroup stated that copper prices will break through $12,000 per ton in 2026, with an upside of more than 20%. In its report, Citi noted that the global copper market will enter a "long-awaited supply shortage" in 2026, with inventory levels approaching critical points. Coupled with Fed rate cuts and a surge in demand from AI and new energy, copper prices will enter an accelerated upward channel. Citi predicts that the average LME copper price will reach $10,500 per ton in 2026 and is expected to exceed $12,000 per ton by year-end, implying more than 20% upside from current prices. Operationally, Citi suggests investors allocate to copper assets in batches over the next 3-6 months to capture the long-term positioning window.

Goldman Sachs noted that copper is leading the "hard asset supercycle" and has become the commodity with the highest growth potential for the year. In its assessment released in January 2026, Goldman Sachs ranked copper as the top commodity for annual growth potential, significantly higher than gold, silver, and Bitcoin. Goldman emphasized that copper is a "core target of the AI and electrification supercycle," and its irreplaceable nature determines the rigidity of medium- to long-term demand—every 1GW increase in photovoltaic installations consumes 500 tons of copper, and AI data centers use ten times as much copper as traditional facilities. With supply-side constraints unlikely to ease in the short term, Goldman is bullish on copper's long-term strength and predicts that the LME copper price will peak at $11,500 per ton in 2026.

JPMorgan Chase stated that copper prices will trend upward with volatility in 2026, warning of short-term correction risks. JPMorgan's view is relatively cautious, believing that copper prices will exhibit a "volatile upward" pattern in 2026, with an average price of about $10,000 per ton and a potential reach of $11,000 per ton by year-end. JPMorgan pointed out that while it is bullish on copper in the medium to long term, two risks warrant caution in the short term: first, the pressure for a correction brought by high global inventories; second, the potential restructuring of trade flows triggered by the Trump administration's proposed "phased refined copper import tariffs," which could exacerbate price volatility.

What are the main factors affecting international copper prices?

1. Supply and Demand Fundamentals (Core Underlying Factor): The relationship between supply and demand is the core determinant of long-term copper price trends and the foundation of all factors. The supply side is mainly affected by copper mine output, mining costs, new mine development progress, and scrap copper recycling—70% of the world's copper mines are concentrated in countries with low political stability like Chile, Peru, and Indonesia. Rising resource nationalism, labor strikes, and community conflicts can all lead to supply disruptions. Meanwhile, the average grade of global copper mines continues to decline, from 1.3% in 2000 to 1.07% in 2025, with mining costs rising by an average of 3% annually, further constraining supply growth. The demand side is mainly affected by industrial production, infrastructure investment, new energy, AI, and the recovery of manufacturing. Among these, new energy vehicles (using 80-200kg of copper per vehicle, 4 to 10 times that of traditional internal combustion engine vehicles), photovoltaics, wind power, and AI data centers are the core drivers of current demand growth.

2. Macroeconomic Factors (Medium-term Drivers): Copper prices are highly correlated with the global economic growth rate. For every 1 percentage point increase in global GDP growth, copper demand growth increases by approximately 1.5 percentage points. Specifically, it is mainly affected by the strength of the global economic recovery, the monetary policies of major economies (Fed rate hikes/cuts), inflation, and exchange rates (U.S. Dollar Index). The negative correlation coefficient between the U.S. Dollar Index and copper prices reaches -0.68; for every 1% depreciation of the dollar, copper prices rise by an average of 1.2%. Because copper is priced in U.S. dollars, a weaker dollar reduces the holding costs for global investors, pushing copper prices higher.

3. Financial Market Factors (Short-term Volatility Factors): Capital flows and speculative behavior in financial markets can lead to large short-term fluctuations in copper prices. These are mainly influenced by changes in futures market positions, speculative capital flows, commodity index allocations, and interest rate changes. For example, when speculative capital floods the copper futures market and increases net long positions, it drives up copper prices in the short term. Conversely, when funds close positions in concentration, it can cause copper prices to plummet. Since the beginning of 2026, the trading volume and open interest of international copper continuous futures have fluctuated significantly, reflecting the impact of short-term speculative capital on copper prices.

4. Geopolitical Factors (Sudden Perturbation Factors): Sudden factors such as geopolitical conflicts, trade frictions, and policy changes can lead to short-term fluctuations in copper prices by affecting the supply, transportation, and demand for copper. For instance, in February 2026, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continued to simmer, with the U.S. advising merchant ships flying its flag to stay away from Iranian territorial waters; if the strait were to close, it would indirectly push up copper production costs. At the same time, the African Mining Indaba focused on cooperation in copper-cobalt resource belts, and the mining development progress in countries such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zambia will also affect the global copper supply pattern. In addition, Chile's plan to increase mining taxes and the Trump administration's proposed copper import tariffs could also become sudden factors affecting copper prices.