Australian Dollar rises after RBA hawkish minutes, inflation data eyed

• AUD/USD rises as RBA minutes flag upside inflation risks.
• Ceasefire report sinks Oil, easing global inflation pressure.
• Australia CPI and US PCE could reset rate bets.

The Aussie Dollar advanced on Tuesday, gaining over 0.20% as the Greenback edged lower, amid minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)'s last meeting suggesting the board was close to raising rates. At the time of writing, the AUD/USD trades at 0.7163, after bouncing off daily lows of 0.7137.

AUD/USD gains as RBA minutes lift hike bets before CPI, PCE

On Tuesday, US economic data was mixed, with Consumer Confidence, as reported by the Conference Board, declining to 89.4 in August, the lowest in seven months. The report showed that future expectations regarding business conditions, the jobs market and household income deteriorated. In the meantime, Building Permits for July improved following June’s contraction, but missed forecasts.

In the Middle East, a possible de-escalation of the conflict looms, as Russia’s RIA news agency revealed that the US and Iran agreed to a ceasefire. Nevertheless, this information should be taken with a pinch of salt, as no other media outlets confirmed the news. Anyhow, Oil prices fell by over 5% after the report. 

Boston Fed President Susan Collins was hawkish, as she emphasized that inflation remains high. Collins added that the economy continues to expand at a near-trend pace and acknowledged that the jobs market remains consistent with full employment.

In Australia, the economic docket will feature Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July, which is expected to drop from 3.8% to 3.2% YoY. The Trimmed Mean CPI for the same period is projected to ease from 3.6% to 3.5% YoY

The RBA’s last meeting minutes showed that the bank is focused on tackling inflation, with an emphasis on upside inflation risks. According to ANZ analysts, “If trimmed mean prints in line with our expectations, the November RBA meeting will be live.”

Meanwhile, money markets expect the RBA to keep rates unchanged towards the end of the year, as interest rate futures had priced in 14 basis points of tightening for the December meeting, implying a 50% chance of a rate hike.

Ahead, the US economic docket will feature the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, Durable Goods Orders, GDP figures, and Initial Jobless Claims. On Friday, the focus would be on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole.

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

In the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7165. The pair holds a constructive bullish bias as price sits above the clustered simple moving averages (SMA) around 0.7003 and rides a series of rising trend-line supports that converge near the current level, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at about 66 suggests firm but not yet extreme positive momentum.

On the downside, immediate support is reinforced by overlapping upward-sloping trend lines passing through the 0.7165 area, with additional structural cushions emerging around 0.7111–0.7086 before a deeper pullback toward the SMA cluster near 0.7003. As long as these supports contain corrective dips, the broader uptrend status remains intact, with any further consolidation above the mid-0.71s likely to keep buyers in control in the near term.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)