British Pound holds near 1.3500 as US CPI, UK GDP loom

• GBP/USD steadies as traders await US CPI and UK GDP.
• Oil retreats on Pakistan headline, easing immediate inflation concerns.
• Fed hike odds rise to 52% before inflation data.

The Pound Sterling holds firm against the Greenback on Tuesday following the release of US jobs data, which was softer than expected, while investors await US inflation data and UK data releases on Thursday. The GBP/USD trades at 1.3508, nearly unchanged.

GBP/USD steadies as traders await key inflation and growth data, Oil swings reshape Fed hike bets

Energy prices had remained high, but retreated on a Bloomberg headline that read “Pakistan Says US, Iran Close to Deal Despite Trump Rhetoric.” On the headline, the US crude benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) retreated from daily highs near $84.69 to $82.50.

Traders are also waiting for the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), with most participants expecting headline inflation to come in at 3.4% YoY in July, a tenth lower than in June, while core CPI is also forecast to drop by the same margin to 2.5%. YoY.

By Thursday, the US economic calendar will unveil the Producer Price Index (PPI) and jobless claims, the first of which follows a disappointing July Nonfarm Payrolls report.

Across the Atlantic, in the UK, traders are bracing for the preliminary reading of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2026, with the economy expected to grow by 1.1% YoY. On a quarterly basis, a slowdown from 0.6% to 0.4% is projected.

Given the backdrop, GBP/USD price action remains contained as investors wait for economic data. However, money markets continued to update their expectations regarding a Fed rate hike in September, with the odds at 52% of a 25-basis-point rate hike, according to Prime Terminal data.

Analysts cited by Reuters said the Pound has not been affected by the election of Andy Burnham as the UK’s new Prime Minister. They added, “Traders are not anticipating much in the way of moves ahead of Britain's budget scheduled for late October.”

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3504, holding a constructive bias as it remains above the clustered Simple Moving Averages around 1.3367. The pair is testing an upward trendline pivot near 1.3504 while the Moving Average Triple (simple) beneath price hints at an underlying bullish structure, with the Relative Strength Index (14) at 60.4 reinforcing firm but not yet overbought upside momentum.

On the topside, immediate resistance appears at the 1.3508 area, where a downward sloping trend line and a previously supportive rising line converge, forming a tight cap just above spot. On the downside, initial support is seen at the reclaimed descending trend line around 1.3504, followed by the Moving Average Triple cluster near 1.3367, where a deeper pullback would be expected to attract fresh buying interest while the broader bullish tone remains intact above that zone.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)