AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Holds gains above 114.00, bullish vibe remains intact above 100-day SMA
- AUD/JPY gains ground to near 114.25 in Friday’s early European session.
- The cross keeps a positive outlook above the 100-day SMA, with bullish RSI momentum on the daily chart.
- The immediate resistance level to watch is 114.70; the first downside target emerges at 113.55.
The AUD/JPY cross trades in positive territory around 114.25 during the early European trading hours on Friday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on a strong Australian employment report for June.
Australia’s Unemployment Rate stayed at 4.4% in June, according to the official data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Thursday. The figure came in line with the market consensus. Meanwhile, the Employment Change came in at 76.3K in June from a rise of 44K in May (revised from 40.3K), better than the forecast of a 15K increase.
Nonetheless, fears of currency intervention from Japanese authorities could lift the JPY and cap the upside for the cross. Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Friday that officials are ready to act appropriately on currency shifts whenever necessary. Katayama added that the authorities are prepared to take decisive steps on the foreign exchange.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, AUD/JPY retains a bullish bias as price holds firmly above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger Bands’ 20-day SMA, keeping the broader uptrend intact. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 63 suggests firm positive momentum, edging toward overbought territory and hinting that upside progress could slow as buyers confront nearby resistance.
On the topside, immediate resistance is aligned with the Bollinger upper band around 114.70. A decisive break above the latter would open the way to the June 2 high of 114.92.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the June 16 high of 113.55. The next contention level is located at the Bollinger middle band at 112.95, followed closely by the 100-day SMA at 112.85; a sustained move below these levels would signal a deeper correction toward the lower Bollinger band around 111.22.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Audjpy faces seasonal headwinds into late summer
According to TD Securities, seasonal patterns argue for caution on AUD/JPY over the coming months. The bank highlights that the cross has "historically experienced bearish seasonality in July and August," noting that in particular, "the pair was down in August 71% of the time over the past 20 years for an average loss of -1.5%." TD Securities suggests this track record reinforces the case for a more defensive stance as the market moves deeper into the late-summer period.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
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