TradingKey Daily Market Brief: CPI Data Slightly Eases Market Inflation Anxiety, U.S.-Iran Negotiations Create Significant Uncertainty, Risk Assets Suddenly Under Pressure

TradingKey - On Friday Eastern Time, U.S. stocks opened slightly higher following the release of CPI data. However, as University of Michigan consumer sentiment plunged to historic lows and the outlook for weekend U.S.-Iran negotiations remained uncertain, the three major U.S. stock indices diverged. The S&P 500 edged down 0.11% to 6,816.89, but still recorded its best weekly gain this year with a cumulative rise of 3.56%. The Dow fell 0.56% to 47,916.57, gaining 3.04% for the week. Strength in semiconductors drove the Nasdaq to close 0.35% higher at 22,902.894, up 4.68% for the week.

Chipmakers led the semiconductor sector higher, with Broadcom rising 4.7% and Nvidia up 2.6%. CoreWeave surged nearly 10.9%. Financial stocks were under pressure ahead of earnings reports from major banks.

Spot gold closed slightly lower by 0.2% but still gained about 1.6% for the week. Spot silver rose 0.71%, gaining 3.89% on the week. WTI May crude oil futures fell 1.33%, pulling back sharply from mid-week highs and recording their largest weekly decline since 2020, though they remain well above pre-war levels.

Meanwhile, global risk assets were mostly under pressure in early Monday trading in Asia, following the breakdown of U.S.-Iran negotiations over the weekend.

In early Monday trading in Asia, Brent and WTI crude oil futures jumped 8% at the open. Futures for the three major U.S. stock indices all opened more than 1% lower, while the U.S. dollar rose over 0.4%. Spot gold initially opened more than 2% lower, and spot silver at one point fell nearly 4%.

Market Headlines

U.S.-Iran negotiations ended in a stalemate. Iran stated that the two sides failed to reach an agreement due to "U.S. greed and ambition," adding that it is in no hurry to resume talks. U.S. Vice President JD Vance responded on April 12, claiming the U.S. had demonstrated "considerable flexibility and sincerity" during the negotiations. He revealed that during the approximately 21-hour negotiation process, the U.S. delegation remained in constant communication with Trump and the national security team, presenting Iran with a "final proposal" and is currently awaiting a response. Vance also noted that the U.S. delegation will return to the United States.

Trump intends to seize control of the Strait of Hormuz to strike at the Iranian economy. Following the collapse of the U.S.-Iran talks, Trump posted a threat stating that if Iran refuses to make concessions, the U.S. military will take control of the Strait of Hormuz to undermine Iran's economy and cut off its oil exports. Iran maintains that passage through the strait must receive Iranian permission, resulting in fundamentally opposed positions on the issue of control. Currently, transit through the strait is extremely limited, with all passing vessels under Iranian surveillance.

Trump stated that while U.S.-Iran negotiations were progressing well in other areas except for the nuclear issue, the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. He stated that he has "instructed the U.S. Navy to intercept and inspect all vessels paying tolls to Iran in international waters," asserting that any vessel paying "illegal tolls" will not be granted safe passage on the high seas. Additionally, the U.S. military will begin clearing naval mines laid by Iran in the strait.

A "landmark event in AI panic" occurred as the residence of OpenAI CEO Sam Altman was targeted in an explosive attack. Altman posted a disclosure stating the incident occurred at 3:45 AM when a 20-year-old man threw an incendiary device at his San Francisco home. He recalled being jolted awake in a fit of rage, which then gave way to deep reflection. Altman admitted he had previously underestimated the power of public narrative and acknowledged that people's fears and anxieties regarding AI are not unfounded; however, he added, "We are witnessing what may be the greatest societal transformation in years, if not ever."

From Wall Street to Silicon Valley, Anthropic is completely stealing OpenAI's thunder. Specifically, in terms of revenue, Anthropic's annualized revenue has surpassed $30 billion, overtaking OpenAI; on the capital front, its private valuation also exceeds that of OpenAI, with investors scrambling for shares in the secondary market while OpenAI's existing shares find no takers.

Top Ten Most Active Stocks

The chart below lists the ten most actively traded stocks in the market last Friday. Given their massive trading volume and exceptional liquidity, these assets have become key benchmarks for tracking global market dynamics.