USD/JPY shuffles feet near 157.00 after Japanese Tokyo CPI inflation rebounds

■  USD.JPY recovers from intraday lows near 156.40.

■  Tokyo CPI inflation bounces from two-year lows in May.

■  Investors look ahead to key US inflation data on Friday.

USD/JPY bounced in early Friday trading, catching a ride to the 157.00 handle from a near-term low of 156.40. Japanese Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation bounced early Friday, paving the way for investors to pivot towards Friday’s US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index inflation print.

Japanese Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation printed higher in May, climbing 2.2% for the year ended in May, rebounding from the previous period’s 26-month low of 1.8%. Japanese Retail Trade also rebound from a two-year low to 2.4%, rising above the forecast 1.9% and recovering from the previous 1.1%, which was revised even lower from 1.2%.

With Tokyo CPI inflation out of the way, which acts as a preview for Japanes nationwide inflation released around three weeks after Tokyo CPI, markets are free to pivot to key US data due on Friday.

Market sentiment recovered on Thursday after US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) eased to 1.3% growth over the first quarter, down from the previous 1.6%. Easing growth figures in the US are helping to bolster rate cut hopes, keeping broad-market risk sentiment on the top side heading into Friday. 

US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index inflation data is due during Friday’s US market session, and is expected to hold steady at 0.3% MoM as investors hope for enough easing in US economic figures to prompt a rate cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed).

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, rate markets are pricing in better-than-even odds of at least a quarter-point rate trim from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) when the rate-setting arm of the Fed meets in September.

USD/JPY technical outlook

USD/JPY found a quick bump into the 157.00 handle early Friday, but the pair is receding back into familiar congestion near 156.80. The pair has been hamstrung along the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 156.73 since falling back from this week’s peak near 157.70.

Daily candlesticks chalked in their first meaningful bearish candle since declining nearly 1.0% on May 15, but the pair overall remains firmly bullish as bids trade well above the 200-day EMA at 149.47.

USD/JPY hourly chart

USD/JPY daily chart