Could XRP Really Catch Ethereum? Analysts Revisit the Question as ETF Tailwinds Build

• The first US spot XRP ETFs have jolted the market, with Canary Capital’s XRPC posting more than $58 million in first-day volume in November 2025.

• Franklin Templeton and Grayscale are lining up their own XRP products, adding fresh weight to the idea that the asset is moving deeper into the institutional toolkit.

• Even so, Ethereum’s roughly $373 billion market cap and smart-contract ecosystem still keep it comfortably ahead of XRP’s $129 billion payments-focused network.

The launch of the first US spot XRP ETFs has given traders something they haven’t had in years: a credible “what if XRP flips Ethereum?” narrative to argue about. November’s debut of Canary Capital’s XRPC — with over $58 million in first-day volume and the strongest opening among hundreds of ETFs launched this year — has done more than move price in the short term. It has changed who is allowed to own XRP and how they can hold it.

Franklin Templeton has already filed its Form 8-A to list the Franklin XRP ETF on NYSE Arca, and Grayscale is in the mix as well, suggesting that XRPC will not be a one-off experiment. A cluster of issuers fighting for flows is exactly how the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF stories began: messy, volatile, and ultimately quite sticky once allocations worked their way through investment committees. XRP is now stepping onto that same stage — just from a very different starting point.

Price-wise, the asset has cooled off after the initial spike. XRP has been consolidating in the $2.12–$2.17 area, leaving some observers underwhelmed by the lack of immediate fireworks. But ETF flows rarely slam into spot markets on day one. Inflows are often routed through OTC desks and internal crossing systems, and they tend to show up in price with a lag, not in a single, cinematic candle.

XRP ETFs Ignite Institutional Momentum

For XRP, November 2025 will sit in the history books alongside key moments like the original RippleNet rollout and the resolution of its high-profile US securities case. The launch of spot ETFs in the US is a concrete sign that major gatekeepers no longer see XRP as a fringe asset.

Canary Capital’s XRPC set the tone: more than $58 million in first-day volume and the strongest ETF debut among hundreds of new listings this year. That kind of opening print matters less for the single day and more for what it signals about pent-up demand. It suggests there were portfolios already queued up, waiting for a product they could actually own under existing mandates.

Franklin Templeton’s filing of Form 8-A to list the Franklin XRP ETF on NYSE Arca is the next step in that process. It means another large, conservative asset manager is preparing to put its name on an XRP vehicle, with trading expected to begin within days of the effective date. Add Grayscale’s presence in the space, and you get a lineup that looks familiar to anyone who watched the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF playbooks unfold in earlier years.

The pattern is similar: short-term noise around launch, followed by a more gradual integration phase. Advisors and institutional desks experiment at the edges of their portfolios, often with small “toe-in-the-water” positions, long before they decide XRP deserves a strategic slice next to Bitcoin or Ethereum. In that sense, the current consolidation around $2.12–$2.17 is less a verdict on the ETFs and more a reminder that flows, risk budgets and committee meetings move on a slower clock than crypto Twitter.

Can XRP Truly Compete With Ethereum’s Dominance?

This is where the conversation gets uncomfortable for XRP bulls. On one hand, 2025 has been a breakout year: record on-chain utility, rising XRPL adoption, and roughly $500 million in strategic investment from Ripple aimed at deepening the asset’s real-world use cases. On the other hand, the numbers on the board still tell a clear story.

Ethereum sits in second place with a market capitalization of about $373 billion, backed by an enormous ecosystem of decentralized applications, smart contracts and tokenized assets. It is the default settlement layer for much of DeFi, NFTs and on-chain experimentation. XRP, by contrast, is at roughly $129 billion in market cap and runs on infrastructure built first and foremost for fast, low-cost payments.

That difference in design shapes demand. Ethereum’s value is heavily tied to developers, composability and the constant flow of new projects deploying on its rails. XRP’s value proposition is more about throughput and reliability: cross-border settlement, tokenization of financial assets, and plumbing for banks and payment firms. Those are deep, sticky use cases — but they do not automatically generate the same “build-on-me” flywheel that Ethereum enjoys.

Analysts looking at the data frame it in practical terms. XRP’s institutional story is getting stronger, especially in cross-border settlement, tokenization and banking infrastructure. Its utility is growing in Japan, the US and across global banks. But the absence of a native smart-contract layer means it is not competing for the same developer mindshare that drives much of Ethereum’s organic demand.

The consensus view for now is blunt: overtaking Ethereum in the short to medium term is a stretch. Closing the gap is more realistic than flipping it. With expanding utility, ETF-driven accumulation and broader global adoption, XRP’s market cap can climb substantially from here without needing to dislodge Ethereum from the No. 2 slot. The two assets may end up coexisting as very different kinds of “blue chips” in the same asset class.

Price Outlook: Volatility Now, Bigger Moves Later

On the charts, XRP is sitting in a zone that tends to make traders uneasy: interesting enough to matter, but not yet decisive. The price is parked near a critical support region around $2.12, repeatedly probing the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. Sellers are still active — capital outflows and a pattern of lower highs remind everyone that the market has not fully shaken off profit-taking and macro jitters.

At the same time, the derivatives picture tells a different story about engagement. Open interest has climbed from around $1 billion to more than $6 billion since October, a sixfold increase that points to heavy positioning on both sides of the trade. That kind of build-up rarely ends with price going sideways forever; it usually resolves with a sharp move once one camp gets squeezed.

Because of that, long-term forecasts from analysts span a wide range. Some scenario maps pencil in potential runs toward $6–$25, but only if ETF inflows accelerate, liquidity tightens and the broader macro backdrop cooperates. Those numbers are not price targets in the traditional sense — they are the outer edges of what could happen if ETF allocations scale quickly and spot supply dries up.

In the nearer term, November and December form an important testing window. Multiple ETF listings will go live, portfolio reviews will work through year-end, and traders will get their first real look at how sticky institutional allocations to XRP actually are. Whether XRP simply oscillates around the $2 handle or starts a more ambitious move higher will depend less on the hype around “flipping Ethereum” and more on how patiently large buyers choose to build their positions.