BoJ plans to raise interest rates in December, but decision on knife-edge - Reuters poll
A Reuters poll showed on Thursday that a narrow majority of economists expect the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise rates to 0.75% in December, with all forecasters seeing at least that level by the end of the first quarter (Q1).
Key quotes
Bank of Japan to raise key interest rate to at least 0.75% by end of Q1 next year, economists unanimously say.
Bank of Japan to raise key interest rate to 0.75% in December, say 53% of economists, 43 of 81.
Japan's rate of pay increase in next year's labour talks seen at 4.90% vs 5.25% this year.
Market reaction
At the time of writing, the USD/JPY pair is trading 0.24% higher on the day to trade at 157.35.
Bank of Japan FAQs
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%.
The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance.
The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance.
A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
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