It’s “Still Early” Until Bitcoin Hits $500,000 – Bitwise CIO Explains Why

According to Bitwise Chief Investment Officer (CIO) Matt Hougan, entering the Bitcoin (BTC) trade may not be too late. The executive recently said that until the flagship cryptocurrency hits $500,000, it’s “still early.”

Potential Investors Should Not Be Discouraged By Bitcoin Price Action

In a client memo shared yesterday, Bitwise’s CIO Hougan stated that while “it’s no longer the first inning,” it’s still early for potential investors until BTC hits $500,000. Hougan goes at length to explain why.

Hougan’s comments come as Bitcoin continues to be in the historical price discovery phase. The cryptocurrency hit an all-time high (ATH) of $89,864 on November 12 before declining to approximately $85,200.

The leading digital asset is up more than 100% on a year-to-date (YTD) basis. It has surged more than 25% since Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 US presidential election, currently commanding a total market cap of $1.76 trillion.

Hougan said that the $100,000 price for BTC “could be right around the corner.” The Bitwise CIO remarked that although some investors might feel they have missed the boat, they are actually “still early” until BTC hits $500,000.

Hougan emphasized two key factors that can catapult BTC to this ambitious price target. The first factor is the rising demand for store-of-value assets like BTC and gold on the back of government-led fiat currency debasement.

In addition, BTC is likely to benefit from its increasing acceptance as a store of value. As the emerging asset matures, it will compete with an established asset like gold, which has already “made it.” Hougan explains:

Bitcoin is still developing, even after this latest rally. It’s still considered news when pensions and endowments make a small investment in crypto. The Department of Labor still warns 401(k) providers not to put Bitcoin in their portfolios, citing the need for “extreme care.” And there is still excitement when big hedge fund investors reveal a positive view of crypto.

Hougan highlighted the phenomenal success of Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETF). Per data from SoSoValue, the total value of net assets held across different US-based spot BTC ETFs is slightly above $94 billion, representing 5.3% of the total BTC market cap.

Regarding the $500,000 price target, Hougan brought attention to the fact that in comparison to gold’s $18 trillion market cap, BTC’s current market cap is not even $2 trillion. He added that a “mature” BTC will at least have a market cap equal to that of gold.

What Will Take BTC To $500,000?

According to Hougan, despite BTC’s growing acceptance, a key piece is still missing that hinders BTC from achieving the ambitious price target – acceptance by central banks. 

Hougan noted that while governments currently hold close to 20% of gold reserves, the proportion of BTC held by governments is less than 2%. This gap must be narrowed for BTC to reach a $500,000 valuation. 

The Bitwise CIO referred to Senator Cynthia Lummins’ hopes for the US to establish a strategic BTC reserve under Donald Trump’s administration. Favorable crypto regulations formed a major part of Trump’s campaign, and creating a sovereign BTC strategic reserve may not be too surprising under his regime.

In similar news, analysts at research firm Bernstein recently stated that BTC’s $200,000 price target by the end of 2025 may be “too conservative.” BTC trades at $89,560 at press time, up 4.5% in the past 24 hours.