Oklo Is Down 61% This Year Despite a Real Technical Milestone. Here's the Disconnect Between the Stock and the Science.

How the tables have turned for small-reactor developer Oklo (NYSE: OKLO). In less than a year, Wall Street has changed its tune, from the enthusiastic rally cry of "Nuclear!" to a much less confident, almost incredulous, "Nuclear?" That change has wiped out not only 25% of the VanEck Uranium and Nuclear ETF (NYSEMKT: NLR) but erased more than 60% of Oklo stock this year.

Therefore, Oklo has been down and up, down and up, down and up, tumbling and rising, like a shoe tossed around in a washing machine. The punishing rout, however, isn't all there is to Oklo stock right now. And if you stop at share price alone, you might miss what's actually happening in the nuclear business.

While Wall Street loses faith, Oklo persists

Oklo is a small reactor developer whose biggest market opportunity is AI power deals. As a company that's trying to rethink how power is delivered -- replacing large grid power with small modular nuclear reactors -- Oklo's technology aligns with the power needs of AI companies, whose enormous appetite for electricity is already straining local grids.

Image source: Oklo.

Delivering AI power has been Oklo's primary tailwind, but lately, it's been a headwind. Investors have been questioning whether money poured into AI infrastructure will actually deliver big returns. And for a company like Oklo, whose future depends on major infrastructure spending, that uncertainty has made investors more hesitant about the stock.

Add to that the fact that Oklo doesn't have regulatory approval for its Aurora powerhouse, and the stock's dismal 2026 performance makes a lot of sense.

Despite what the stock has done or failed to do this year, the company has been making some decent progress. Take, for example, the first criticality of its Groves test reactor in Texas, which was achieved in August. First criticality marks that Oklo built and started a nuclear reactor, a crucial first step for any nuclear operator.

Or how about the NRC's approval of the principal design criteria for its Aurora powerhouse in May, or the Department of Energy's approval of a preliminary safety analysis for Oklo's reactor in Idaho? Each is a small but crucial step toward commercialization.

Oklo is making progress, but is it worth an investment right now?

Oklo has made substantial progress, but we shouldn't confuse progress with finances -- Oklo still manages an unprofitable business. It's still burning cash as it works toward commercializing its reactors. And though its first Aurora is planned to go live in 2028, there's no guarantee it will be live by that target year. Indeed, I wouldn't put firm trust in that data until construction is well underway, as Oklo has a history of repeatedly pushing back the predicted launch date of its first reactor.

If none of the above makes you flinch, a small speculative position in Oklo might be consistent with your investing approach. Less aggressive investors, however, will probably want to look elsewhere for their next growth stock.

Steven Porrello has positions in Oklo. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.